Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 1st December 2025

Zerocap is a market-leading digital asset firm, providing trading, liquidity and custody to forward-thinking institutions and investors globally. To learn more, contact the team at [email protected]

This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

• Australia introduces Digital Assets Framework Bill 2025, requiring crypto platforms to hold financial licenses.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs gained US$70M, ending a four-week outflow streak; Ethereum ETFs added US$313M.
• CoinShares withdrew SEC filings for XRP, Solana (staking), and Litecoin ETFs amid SPAC plans.
• Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve executed its first US$5M IBIT purchase under SB 21, establishing a state-managed Bitcoin allocation.
• S&P cut Tether’s (USDT) rating score to “weak,” citing unclear reserves and governance gaps amid market risks.
• Kevin Hassett leads Fed Chair race; previously worked on White House crypto policy.

---

Technicals & Macro

Markets

U.S Equities rise on growing confidence of a December FOMC interest rate cut

Last week, US equity indices broadly gained, as investors interpreted the softer economic data and dovish Federal Reserve commentary as confirmation that a December rate cut remains most likely.  Currently, short term interest rate futures are assigning a 87.4% probability of a December 10th rate cut – up from 45.8% on November 16th.

Despite the holiday-shorterned trading schedule, major equity indices advanced, with small-cap stocks outperforming their large-cap peers.  The Russell 2000 notably gained 5.52%!  The Nasdaq also rebounded, with concerns of elevated AI-related spending being outweighed by renewed optimism of the sector’s long-term growth prospects. 

US retail data is showing slowing aggregate demand and a more cautious consumer..

In economic news, The Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales increased by 0.2% in September (vs 0.4% expectation), down from 0.6% in August.  

September US retail sales breakdown

Other important economic releases included the September Producer Price Index (PPI), which rose 0.3% (vs 0.3% expectation) on the headline, and by just 0.1% on the Core (excluding food and energy). 

Critical to the upcoming December FOMC decision, US labor market data remains mixed.  US initial jobless claims fell to 216,000 (for the week ended November 22), marking the lowest reading since April; while continuing claims increased by 7,000 to 1.960 million (nearing the year-to-date highs of 1.968 million reached in late July). 

Quite tellingly, US consumer confidence has fallen to 88.7 on the headlined index, the lowest reading since April.  Survey respondents highlight inflation, tariffs, and political uncertainty as the key drivers behind the weaker outlook.

BTC/USD falls to start the month after a red November

To begin December, cryptocurrency markets have remained under pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) down circa 4.3% and trading below USD 88,000 in the Asia session.  Ethereum (ETH) has also declined by approximately 6% to move below USD $2,900.

Today’s move lower appears to have coincided with a sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields.  Japan’s 2-year yield briefly reached 1.01% (a 17-year high), fueling risk-off positioning across regional markets.  The selloff followed comments by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who mentioned the Board will evaluate whether a rate hike is appropriate at this month’s meeting.  Traders remain firmly focused on the price action of USD/JPY for any hints of an upcoming BoJ rate hike.

With BTC having stabilized late last week (recovering back above USD $90,000), this latest retracement has reintroduced fragility and volatility.  Traders continue to point to weak Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) inflows and limited dip-buying, as signs that structural demand remains muted. 

Forced selling also intensified during the move lower, with over USD $500 million in leveraged BTC longs liquidated.  It is unclear whether this flow specifically related to concern of the Yen carry trade unwind, but we will be sure to monitor these dynamics.

The week ahead is set to offer a crucial snapshot of US economic momentum as policymakers weigh on the trajectory of interest rates heading into 2026.  Any shift in the market’s expectation of further policy easing may influence risk assets. 

Emir Ibrahim, Analyst

---

Spot Desk

Digital assets staged a modest but cautious recovery this week, with activity on the desk still reflecting a firmly defensive tone overall. Volumes remained extremely concentrated in majors and stablecoins with relatively limited appetite for broader altcoin risk; Solana (SOL) continued to attract interest as one of the few beneficiaries of rotation, while Pax Gold (PAXG) also picked up demand as market participants looked to crypto-native gold exposure. 

At the same time, exits out of long-held favourites such as LINK (LINK) and Layer3 (L3) into stablecoins underscored a continued consolidation and derisking of holdings rather than a shift back into higher-beta assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) found some footing after the prior week’s intense selloff, trading within a range of 85,272 to 93,092. While intraday swings persisted, the broader tone was stabilisation rather than acceleration in either direction following the previous week’s liquidations. Ethereum (ETH) mirrored this pattern, rising from weekly lows of USD 2,763 to a high of USD 3,099 before easing back, with >US$200M in BTC long liquidations during today’s Asia session pushing majors briefly back towards the lows of last week’s ranges in a rocky start to December so far. Desk flows in majors were decidedly two-way and balanced for the week, consistent with a market still recalibrating after back-to-back weeks of de-risking.

ETF flows provided further support: with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording US$70m in net inflows to break a four-week outflow streak and the state of Texas as a new notable buyer, as the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve purchased approximately US$5m of BlackRock’s IBIT to execute its first allocation under new legislation SB 21.  Ethereum ETFs posted US$313m of inflows to reverse three weeks of redemptions.

On the macro front, Australia’s first full monthly CPI release showed inflation at 3.8% YoY, well above expectations and exceeding the RBA’s 2–3% target. The trimmed mean also topped forecasts at 3.3% YoY, reinforcing concerns about “sticky” services inflation. The AUD responded with a strong rally, opening the week at 0.6461, hitting 0.6560, and closing at 0.6546. Flows in stablecoin/AUD crosses were decisively more balanced than last week’s offramping skew; across other pairs, USDT and USDC against EUR, NZD, and USD all remain well-traded in both directions. Traders are also monitoring USD/JPY closely after 2-year Japanese bond yields hit 1.01%, the highest level in 17 years, and have Fed Chair Powell speaking on Tuesday and an Australian GDP Growth Rate print on Wednesday to look forward to as this week’s highlights.

Elsewhere, S&P downgraded Tether’s USDT stability score to “weak,” highlighting ongoing gaps in reserve transparency, custodian reporting, and liquidity coverage as stablecoin governance continues to come under heightened scrutiny. In Washington, Kevin Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner for Fed Chair, having played a central role in the White House’s digital asset working group, a development closely monitored for potential implications on U.S. crypto policy, stablecoin regulation, and broader monetary guidance.

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across majors, stablecoins, and altcoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.

Ben Mensah, OTC Trader

---

Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*

The recent price correction in crypto assets has led to a material contraction across basis rates.

• The 90-day annualized Bitcoin (BTC) basis rate is currently trading near its yearly low at 4.63%.
• The corresponding Ethereum (ETH) basis rate is similarly depressed at 3.62%.

These subdued levels translate to attractively low collateralized borrowing costs. For pricing and bespoke structuring opportunities, please contact the derivatives desk directly.

Source: Velodata

Source: Velodata

The close of the November monthly candle failed to stay above the $90k support level, triggering a retest of this breakdown zone at the start of the week. This technical weakness is compounded by a significant surge in near-term volatility, evidenced by a 10 vol-point spike in At-The-Money (ATM) weekly implied volatility this morning.

Against this backdrop, investors may consider reducing risk exposure. Approaches that limit downside while preserving the potential to capture some upside appear particularly appealing right now. The desk is exploring wide, low-delta collar structures (for example, on ETH: USD 2K / USD 4.4K) as a way to navigate the current volatility.

Zero Cost Collar

Implement a Zero-Cost Collar on ETH – a simple options strategy to simultaneously limit downside and cap upside at zero net cost.

Mechanics of the Collar

• Protective Put at USD $2,000 – this ensures a minimum floor: regardless of how far ETH might drop, the investor retains the right to sell at USD $2,000 at expiry.
• Covered Call at USD $4,400 – this caps the upside.  The premium from writing the call offsets the cost of the put.

Payoff Profile:

• If ETH ≤ USD $2,000 at expiry → downside is fully hedged; the investor sells at USD $2,000.
• If USD $2,000 < ETH < USD $4,400 → they capture spot market gains (ETH trade value minus option costs = zero upfront cost).
• If ETH ≥ USD $4,400 → maximum payoff is capped at USD $4,400.

Risk Considerations:

• Opportunity cost: Upside beyond $4,400 is foregone for downside protection.
• Regulatory shifts: New laws (GENIUS Act, Project Crypto) may drive sudden shifts in ETH price or volatility.
• Alternative altcoin moves: Unexpected narratives (e.g., revenue meta/Ai hype) could redirect capital away from ETH, increasing relative risk towards downside.

Why the Collar Makes Sense Now:

• Secures present gains while retaining material upside.
• Neutral capital deployment: No immediate net premium means the investor doesn’t deploy additional funds while locking a favorable risk profile.

Hit the derivs desk for pricing!

---

What to Watch

TUE: US Fed Chair Powell Speech, EU Inflation Rate YoY, EU Unemployment rate

WED: AU GDP Growth Rate

THU: AU Balance of Trade, ECB President Lagarde SpeechFRI: US Core PCE Price Index MoM

---

Contact Us

Zerocap is a market-leading digital asset firm, providing trading, liquidity and custody to forward-thinking institutions and investors globally. To learn more, contact the team at [email protected]

DISCLAIMER

Zerocap Pty Ltd carries out regulated and unregulated activities.

Spot crypto-asset services and products offered by Zerocap are not regulated by ASIC. Zerocap Pty Ltd is registered with AUSTRAC as a DCE (digital currency exchange) service provider (DCE100635539-001).

Regulated services and products include structured products (derivatives) and funds (managed investment schemes) are available to Wholesale Clients only as per Sections 761GA and 708(10) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Sophisticated/Wholesale Client). To serve these products, Zerocap Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR: 001289130) of AFSL 340799

This material is intended solely for the information of the particular person to whom it was provided by Zerocap and should not be relied upon by any other person. The information contained in this material is general in nature and does not constitute advice, take into account financial objectives or situation of an investor; nor a recommendation to deal. . Any recipients of this material acknowledge and agree that they must conduct and have conducted their own due diligence investigation and have not relied upon any representations of Zerocap, its officers, employees, representatives or associates. Zerocap has not independently verified the information contained in this material. Zerocap assumes no responsibility for updating any information, views or opinions contained in this material or for correcting any error or omission which may become apparent after the material has been issued. Zerocap does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of advice or information which is contained in this material. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Zerocap and its officers, employees, representatives or associates do not accept any liability (whether arising in contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this material or for any resulting loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) suffered by the recipient of this material or any other person. This is a private communication and was not intended for public circulation or publication or for the use of any third party. This material must not be distributed or released in the United States. It may only be provided to persons who are outside the United States and are not acting for the account or benefit of, “US Persons” in connection with transactions that would be “offshore transactions” (as such terms are defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”)). This material does not, and is not intended to, constitute an offer or invitation in the United States, or in any other place or jurisdiction in which, or to any person to whom, it would not be lawful to make such an offer or invitation. If you are not the intended recipient of this material, please notify Zerocap immediately and destroy all copies of this material, whether held in electronic or printed form or otherwise.

Disclosure of Interest: Zerocap, its officers, employees, representatives and associates within the meaning of Chapter 7 of the Corporations Act may receive commissions and management fees from transactions involving securities referred to in this material (which its representatives may directly share) and may from time to time hold interests in the assets referred to in this material.  Investors should consider this material as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.