Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 5th May 2025

Zerocap is a market-leading digital asset firm, providing trading, liquidity and custody to forward-thinking institutions and investors globally. To learn more, contact the team at [email protected]

This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

• Ripple offered $4-5B to buy Circle, but the bid was rejected; Circle aims to rival Ripple’s USDC network.
• Bitcoin continues to attract institutional investment, with BlackRock’s ETF inflows reaching nearly $675M and US ETFs holding $112B in BTC.
• Telegram launches a $500M debt tokenization fund on TON, expanding DeFi and real-world asset tokenization.
• BlackRock files to tokenize $150B in Treasury Trust funds on Ethereum.
• Tether reports nearly $120B treasury exposure, $1B profit, and mints $2B USDT in Q1.
• Circle receives regulatory approval to operate USDC in Abu Dhabi and expand in the Middle East, with USDC reaching $62B
• South Korea’s ruling party pledges to approve Bitcoin spot ETFs and relax banking rules before June 3 election
• A Dubai family office linked to Qatari royal Sheikh Nayef bin Eid Al Thani plans to invest $8.8 billion in turning the Maldives into a blockchain hub.

---

Technicals & Macro

BTCUSD

Source: TradingView

Key levels
66,000 / 72,000 / 92,000 / ~110,000 (just north of the all-time high)

BTCUSD punched through 97,000 this week – and not because retail traders or short-term speculators are piling in. Open interest is down on a weekly basis, and funding rates are fascinatingly flat, or negative as I write. The 3-month futures basis is now sub-5%. We are seeing clear real money spot buying (and holding), whilst the derivative mania we’ve seen in prior cycles is simply not there. It’s no wonder open interest for the 300K BTC strike in June IS building though -> the remaining speculative capital is considering what a break of highs and leverage build up could look like over the next month. I don’t think we get to 300K by the end of June, but taking some OTM punts could pay off if Trump turns around and ratifies the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

One thing is for sure, we have a lot of room to move to the upside if the real-money buyers keep floating in, and indications are that this could continue. (Micro)Strategy’s latest $1.42B allocation (15,355 BTC) brings its total holdings to 553,555 BTC. That’s not a trade. That’s a multi-cycle conviction allocation, and others are following. Twenty One Capital is chasing Saylor’s model – with an initial allocation of 42,000 BTC. The Cantor led SPAC will debut as the second largest public Bitcoin holder after Strategy. They are trying to differentiate the model by additionally deploying funds into Bitcoin-native financial products, lending and balance sheet vehicles, and content media.

It’s an interesting proposition – but I do find myself considering whether investors are partly investing in a VC fund, which brings a host of questions around the risks of this model. In any event, it’s making waves, so keep an eye on progress. I found Liam Kelly’s X post hilarious – I do think Satoshi would be rolling around wondering what in the world modern finance is trying to achieve by wrapping BTC in complex financial vehicles:

Technically, BTC is now approaching the key psychological battleground at 100,000. Break it with some gusto, and there’s some chop before the next zone toward 110,000, where leverage likely intensifies. 92,000 holds as soft support, but real demand is clustered around 84,000 to 85,000.

NASDAQ/BTC

Jumping correlations – VIX is down, and Nasdaq rallying (ever so slightly) against BTC.

Dollar retesting resistance

Testing resistance at the psychological ~100 level and we are continuing lower as I write. Trump felt max pain, and is now backing off from the hardest line tariffs – but the damage has already been done. The market is questioning American exceptionalism under Trump’s leadership.

Gold retesting support

Does gold still rally on the back of a risk resurgence? We think it’ll have a place in this new world for a while longer – primarily because risk moves are not uniform right now, and neither do we expect them to be in 2025. Trump and geopolitics have many moving parts. Gold can be a solid hedge.

ETHUSD

ETHBTC

Over the past few weeks, the ETHBTC ratio collapsing below 0.019 sucks for ETH holders, but is a big deal. This five-year low is signalling longer-run capital rotation away from risk-on beta and toward digital scarcity. This is the opposite of an altcoin season. It’s a Bitcoin-only bid that is changing the playbook. This is no longer a liquidity-fuelled melt-up. It’s a repricing of supply in a structurally under-owned asset – and the market’s finally acknowledging it.

Stay safe out there.

Jon de Wet, CIO

---

Spot Desk

Amidst a notable spike in risk sentiment across the board this week, flows on the desk this week continued to reflect broader market preferences – with BTC and stablecoins remaining the name of the game. Bitcoin saw dominant volume on the desk, alongside evergreen interest in USDT and USDC pairs across fiat currencies (AUD/EUR/USD/NZD) that we continue to service both ways.

For the week, the desk observed a significant skew toward AUD on-ramping flow; as domestic players took advantage of a stronger AUD and USDT sellers appeared to remain reluctant to offer into such Aussie dollar strength. Mirroring an ascending bitcoin dominance – altcoin activity also continued to remain relatively muted but still noteworthy, with targeted orders in client favourites such as ALGO and MYRIA leading the week.

It was another low-volatility but strong week for the Australian Dollar (AUD), continuing its slow and steady climb against the U.S. Dollar. Opening at 0.6383, the AUD touched a high of 0.6469 before closing out the week at 0.6444 – locking in most of its gains. The move comes amidst U.S. GDP data and hotter-than-expected PCE inflation combining to stoke stagflation fears; with the DXY extending its relentless decline, despite Australian inflation also surprising to the upside.

In macro markets, risk appetite returned in force, with the S&P 500 posting a streak of 9 consecutive green sessions (most since 2004), bolstered by strong earnings from big tech heavyweights like Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META). This shift came in tandem with a pullback in the parabolic gold, possibly signaling a cooling and potential reversion of the fear-driven, flight to safety capital flows that have characterised much of the year and a rotation back into risk assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) was a benefactor of this improved risk environment, opening at 93,749 and running up to 97,896 – before a disappointing weekend session for bulls erased much of the gains to close nearly flat at 94,278. Ethereum (ETH) tracked BTC closely, while other altcoins continued to underperform, as Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) persisted to a new cycle high of 65.01%, buoyed by $4.18 billion in ETF inflows for the week.

This comes in line with an institutional demand that also shows no signs of slowing, as (Micro)Strategy unveiled its “42/42 Plan,” aiming to raise $84 billion through a mix of equity and debt to fund future BTC purchases through 2027. Meanwhile, Tether disclosed total U.S. Treasury exposure nearing $120 billion, including indirect holdings via money markets and repo agreements, and reported over $1 billion in quarterly profits from traditional investments — underscoring the growing financial footprint of stablecoin issuers in traditional markets.

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across major coins, altcoins, and memecoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.

Ben Mensah, Trading Analyst

---

Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*

The basis for both BTC and ETH continues to track within familiar low ranges. For now, we expect the BTC basis to remain anchored between 4–7%, as markets await greater clarity on trade developments and the U.S. monetary policy response.

Trade Idea: Selling upside volatility
Ongoing uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, bond market dynamics, and the Fed’s next moves has kept volatility elevated. In options markets, skew has now moved in favor of calls, making call premiums relatively richer. Against this backdrop, strategies focused on selling upside volatility may continue to offer attractive risk-adjusted returns.

Yield Exit Note sample terms:

For a 27th June BTC Yield Exit Note with 100k Strike Price one can generate 5.07% absolute Yield. That’s an interesting proposition for a ~two-month position.

There are two possible outcomes at expiry

• BTC expires above 100k: Receive 100k USD per BTC invested + 5.07% yield paid in USD
• BTC expires below 100k: Receive back BTC margin + 5.07% yield paid in BTC

Hit the desk up for all your derivatives needs.

Austin Sacks, Derivatives Analyst

What to Watch

Monday 5 May

• Market Holidays: HK (Buddha’s Birthday), Japan (Children’s Day), UK (Bank Holiday

• Swiss CPI (Apr): April print crucial for SNB easing bets (80% priced for June cut to 0%). CHF strength and limited FX intervention options add complexity.
• US ISM Services PMI (Apr): Expected at 50.6 (prev. 50.8). Slowing activity, weaker orders, and rising input prices (tariff-driven) in focus.
• EZ Sentix (May), Turkish CPI (Apr)

Tuesday 6 May

• Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Apr): Expected to soften post-official PMI dip. Employment trends weak; any downside surprise could prompt policy easing.
• EZ Services/Composite Final PMI (Apr), EZ PPI (Mar), US Trade Balance (Mar), NZ Unemployment (Q1)

Wednesday 7 May

• FOMC Decision: Hold at 4.25–4.5% expected. Powell to maintain a “wait-and-see” stance. Focus on growth downgrade, tariff impact, inflation still “elevated.”
• Chinese FX Reserves: Watch for signs of stealth US Treasury sales.
• Swedish Flash CPIF (Apr): Last input before Riksbank—SEB sees +3.3% y/y vs. Riksbank’s 3.2%.
• Also: RBNZ Financial Stability Report, BCB and CNB decisions, German Industrial Orders (Mar), EZ Retail Sales (Mar)

Thursday 8 May

• BoE Decision: 25bps cut to 4.25% expected. Vote split could emerge if Dhingra pushes for 50bps. Language on “gradual and careful” guidance key.
• Riksbank Decision: Likely on hold at 2.25%. Risks balanced; board to remain data-dependent amid tariff uncertainty.
• Norges Bank Decision: Hold at 4.50% expected. Inflation softening, but economy firm; next move seen in 2H.
• Also: BoC Financial Stability Report, BoJ March Minutes, German IP & Trade (Mar), US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday 9 May

• Canadian Jobs Report (Apr): Labour market under pressure from tariffs. Deterioration may revive BoC cut debate.
• Chinese Trade Balance (Apr): First read on tariff impact. Sharp drop in exports/imports expected; rerouting US trade slow to materialise.
• Also: Norwegian CPI (Apr), China New Yuan Loans & M2 (Apr)

* Index used:

Bitcoin	Ethereum	Gold	Equities	High Yield Corporate Bonds	Commodities	Treasury Yields
BTC	ETH	PAXG	S&P 500, ASX 200, VT	HYG	SPGSCI	U.S. 10Y

Contact Us

Zerocap is a market-leading digital asset firm, providing trading, liquidity and custody to forward-thinking institutions and investors globally. To learn more, contact the team at [email protected]

DISCLAIMER

Zerocap Pty Ltd carries out regulated and unregulated activities.

Spot crypto-asset services and products offered by Zerocap are not regulated by ASIC. Zerocap Pty Ltd is registered with AUSTRAC as a DCE (digital currency exchange) service provider (DCE100635539-001).

Regulated services and products include structured products (derivatives) and funds (managed investment schemes) are available to Wholesale Clients only as per Sections 761GA and 708(10) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Sophisticated/Wholesale Client). To serve these products, Zerocap Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR: 001289130) of AFSL 340799

This material is intended solely for the information of the particular person to whom it was provided by Zerocap and should not be relied upon by any other person. The information contained in this material is general in nature and does not constitute advice, take into account financial objectives or situation of an investor; nor a recommendation to deal. . Any recipients of this material acknowledge and agree that they must conduct and have conducted their own due diligence investigation and have not relied upon any representations of Zerocap, its officers, employees, representatives or associates. Zerocap has not independently verified the information contained in this material. Zerocap assumes no responsibility for updating any information, views or opinions contained in this material or for correcting any error or omission which may become apparent after the material has been issued. Zerocap does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of advice or information which is contained in this material. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Zerocap and its officers, employees, representatives or associates do not accept any liability (whether arising in contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this material or for any resulting loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) suffered by the recipient of this material or any other person. This is a private communication and was not intended for public circulation or publication or for the use of any third party. This material must not be distributed or released in the United States. It may only be provided to persons who are outside the United States and are not acting for the account or benefit of, “US Persons” in connection with transactions that would be “offshore transactions” (as such terms are defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”)). This material does not, and is not intended to, constitute an offer or invitation in the United States, or in any other place or jurisdiction in which, or to any person to whom, it would not be lawful to make such an offer or invitation. If you are not the intended recipient of this material, please notify Zerocap immediately and destroy all copies of this material, whether held in electronic or printed form or otherwise.

Disclosure of Interest: Zerocap, its officers, employees, representatives and associates within the meaning of Chapter 7 of the Corporations Act may receive commissions and management fees from transactions involving securities referred to in this material (which its representatives may directly share) and may from time to time hold interests in the assets referred to in this material.  Investors should consider this material as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.