16 Jun, 25
Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 16th June 2025

Zerocap is a market-leading digital asset firm, providing trading, liquidity and custody to forward-thinking institutions and investors globally. To learn more, contact the team at [email protected]
This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.
Week in Review
- Major adoption of blockchain by 60% of Fortune 500 companies, signaling the future of money and increased corporate blockchain initiatives.
- U.S. regulators, including the SEC and CFTC, are preparing to oversee and classify cryptocurrencies, with developments on Solana ETFs and crypto regulation clarity.
- GameStop plans to raise $1.75 billion, potentially for Bitcoin purchases, as crypto adoption by traditional firms increases.
- Bybit plans to launch Solana-based DEX Byreal in Q3, with testnet coming end of June
- SEC Chair Gensler’s crypto regulation rollback and the scrapping of DeFi rules signal regulatory shifts, while US Senate schedules final stablecoin bill vote.
Technicals & Macro
BTCUSD
74,000 / 92,000 / 100,000 / ~110,000 / 112,000 (ATH)
Geopolitical unrest hits Iranian nuclear targets shelled by Israel. The Iranian counterstrikes actually broke through the iron dome Israeli defense system.
The world is watching this one – and although markets are calmer today (Monday 16th), this conflict has the potential to escalate further. Israel is claiming that it is neutralising nuclear capability, but there are now growing signs of a deeper regime change strategy at play. There are a number of scenarios that could play out here, with the US potentially being compelled to assist. The next few weeks could be volatile, so be wary!
The initial impact saw over $1B in crypto liquidations, and a wave of risk-off sentiment. Despite this, we are not seeing substantial institutional dropoff. Circle is still pumping after its listing on a relative basis, trading last week’s close at ~380% above its IPO price. There are rumours of Bullish and Gemini also looking to list, and we are in a clear wave of M&A consolidation going on. Speed to market, and gaining revenue accretive business lines is the play here – and it’s accelerating. In other news, Trump declared $600M in crypto earnings in 2024 – so expect buoyancy in legislation.
30Y Treasury Yield
DXY in the basement
The 30-year treasury yield is still elevated, reflecting risk premium pricing and market concerns around inflation/stagflation. The US dollar tanking provides the key insight here.
Gold breaks its wedge
Gold in good place to capture the bearer bid from further USD weakness and safe-haven flows.
Fedwatch
Despite Trump calling for 100bps of cuts, the Fed is understandably cautious.
NASDAQ/BTCUSD
Nasdaq/BTCUSD ratio oscillating in a tight range. If Iran escalates, I’d bet the initial move here is higher, but then the medium-term move sees a flight to gold, which in turn gives bitcoin room to catch some air. We are not seeing substantial direct correlation between gold and BTC right now, but the order flow dynamics (real money buyers, corporates, sovereigns) could provide the initial boost while other risk heads south.
Basis expansion holding near benchmark rates
While the 30Y yield has a risk premium priced in, it seems that the BTC 3-Month basis is getting risk premium priced out. Super low levels historically.
ETHUSD
ETHBTC
ETH still holding the line – the Pectra upgrade has helped, but of particular note are reports that Blackrock are buying more, signalling support.
So where does this leave us? In the middle of a potential high impact geopolitical event(s), a swathe of institutional crypto adoption, and a growing shift away from Treasuries and into bearer assets like gold and bitcoin. Investors at this stage are buying the dip.
Stay safe out there.
Jon de Wet, CIO
Spot Desk
The spot desk saw active crypto and forex participation amid market volatility surrounding rising geopolitical tensions as the Israel-Iran conflict deepens. The geopolitical unrest prompted a shift towards traditional safe-haven assets. The U.S. dollar strengthened slightly, with the EUR/USD pair declining by 0.36% to approximately 1.1530, ending a four-day rally. Further, AUD/USD also ended the week 0.1% down after trading in a range of 1.4%. Cryptocurrencies experienced heightened volatility amid the conflict. BTC dropped to around $102,600 following reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iran but later rebounded to approximately $106,000. The broader crypto market remained sensitive to BTC’s price action and also saw significant declines, highlighting the fragility in risk-on assets amid uncertainty.
Client activity was dominated by significant USDT flows against both USD and AUD, including several block trades executed with minimal market disruption—highlighting strong two-way interest. BTC and ETH remained actively traded, particularly in AUD pairs, with notable BTC/AUD execution following the recent price pullback. Substantial cross-stablecoin flows between USDT and USDC were also observed, consistent with treasury management shifts following Circle’s listing. In addition, there was increased altcoin activity such as SOL, L3, and ALGO.
Agency TWAP volume continues to rise WoW as clients place orders ranging from 24-hours to 2-weeks on their various mid-large cap crypto holdings, notably BTC, HYPE, S, ALGO and L3. TWAPs are an excellent choice to buy or sell your crypto assets whilst minimising market impact, and generally capturing a more favourable result than principal spot trades for larger block orders. Feel free to hit up the OTC desk through the live chat on the Zerocap portal any time to discuss any enquiries!
The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across major coins, altcoins, and memecoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.
Oliver Davis, OTC Trader
Derivatives Desk
WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*
BTC and ETH basis rates continue to tick lower over the week. As written about in previous weeks, we expect this downward pressure to persist in the near term absent a meaningful external catalyst. BTC’s 90-day Basis is down to 5.80% and ETH’s is at 5.29%.
Trade Idea: ETH Discount Note
With prices lower on the week, gaining some additional long exposure is worth considering. A strategic way to gain exposure is a Discount Note, which allows investors to participate in potential upside while entering below spot. ETH Discount Notes look attractive at the moment – due to the higher volatility in ETH options (allowing for a greater discount %).
OVERVIEW
Term: 6-Months
The structure has a binary payout outcome depending on the price of ETH observed at expiry. Payout for this options strategy depends on the price of ETH at expiry with reference to the Strike Level – the two scenarios are:
Expiry Price above Strike Price (25% above current price):
- Maximum return of 36% – received in USD.
Expiry Price below Strike Price:
- 8% discounted purchase price at current levels into the ETH token – received in Spot.
RISK PROFILE
- Maximum loss for this product is the initial investment amount.
- May suit investors with a stable to moderately bullish view on ETH.
- May not suit investors who think a major bull run in ETH is likely before expiry.
- May not suit investors who think ETH will fall significantly before expiry.
Hit the desk up for pricing.
Berkeley Cox, Derivatives Analyst
What to Watch
It’s a blockbuster week for global macro, with a dense line-up of central bank decisions and key activity data that could reshape rates pricing and market direction. The Fed, BoE, SNB, Norges Bank, Riksbank and BoJ are all in play, alongside Chinese activity prints, Japanese CPI, and U.S. retail sales.
The focus will be on how sticky inflation is versus weakening growth, and whether policymakers flinch from their easing signals or double down. Market sensitivity to macro surprises is high, with vol creeping into rates and FX as traders reassess terminal rate paths.
Monday, 16 June | China Activity Data (May)
- Retail Sales and Industrial Production will set the tone for Chinese risk assets. Slight softening expected, but still holding up. Watch fixed asset investment and unemployment rate prints closely.
Tuesday, 17 June | BoJ Policy Decision; US Retail Sales (May)
- BoJ likely holds at 0.5%, but taper talk could dominate. US Retail Sales expected to be soft which is a key test of consumer resilience post-tariffs. Any downside surprise could cement dovish Fed pricing.
Wednesday, 18 June | FOMC, Riksbank, UK CPI (May)
- Fed on hold but dot plot revisions and Powell’s tone will guide September cut probabilities. Riksbank seen cutting 25bps amid weak data. UK CPI the critical input for BoE, watch services inflation.
Thursday, 19 June | BoE, SNB, Norges Bank, Aussie Jobs (May)
- BoE expected to hold; vote split will signal easing bias. SNB likely cuts (debate is 25bps vs 50bps). Norges Bank on hold, but forward guidance key. Aussie jobs to confirm or challenge soft April print.
Friday, 20 June | Japan CPI (May), PBoC LPR, UK Retail Sales (May), MOF Bond Meeting
- Japan CPI due post-BoJ, focus on core services inflation. China LPRs expected unchanged. UK retail sales to round out BoE picture. Japan’s MoF bond meeting could hint at JGB supply tweaks.
Emir Ibrahim, Analyst
* Index used:
Bitcoin | Ethereum | Gold | Equities | High Yield Corporate Bonds | Commodities | Treasury Yields |
BTC | ETH | PAXG | S&P 500, ASX 200, VT | HYG | SPGSCI | U.S. 10Y |
Contact Us
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