Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 12th May 2025

Zerocap is a market-leading digital asset firm, providing trading, liquidity and custody to forward-thinking institutions and investors globally. To learn more, contact the team at [email protected]

This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

• Coinbase acquires crypto derivatives and options platform Deribit for $2.9 billion, including $700 million cash.
• Stripe launches new money management capabilities, making stablecoin-powered financial accounts accessible to businesses in 101 countries.
• Superstate launches on-chain stocks and expands into tokenized equities, starting with Solana, with SEC-registered ‘Opening Bell’ platform.
• BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF and IBIT see sustained inflows, surpassing $5 billion, with Bitcoin trading over $100K.
• Vivek Ramaswamy’s Strive Capital plans to raise $2 billion and merge with Asset Entities, becoming the first Bitcoin treasury company with a $1 billion buy, causing its stock to surge 400%.
• Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade, its most ambitious yet, goes live with 11 improvements to enhance user experience, validator operations, and Layer 2 scaling.
• DeFi Development Corp. plans a 7-for-1 stock split after a crypto-fueled rally, aiming to boost its treasury and development efforts.

---

Technicals & Macro

BTCUSD

Source: TradingView

Key levels
66,000 / 72,000 / 92,000 / ~110,000 (just north of the all-time high)

Party in the house!

Bitcoin surged through 100,000 last week, reaching 105,525 before consolidating around 104, which is where we are trading now. Easing U.S.-China trade tensions and progress on a UK deal, and improving macro sentiment is leading to some gusto. The US employment figures last week were a strong indicator that the local US economy is holding up above expectations against the recent turmoil. We’ve mentioned over the past few weeks on Trump’s max pain point – there’s only so much pain he can take from falling asset prices before the deal maker in him needs to realign. He’s been known for making Wall Street money and pushing asset prices higher his entire professional and political career. Having Wall Street and the world dump stocks and treasuries was only ever going to last so long before a realignment came through. And here we are – in “substantive” talks with China, and the rest of his trading partners to follow. 

What we’ve seen is equities and the dollar gaining strength. However, the bond market remains volatile, experiencing a “steepening twist” as long-term yields rise amid inflation concerns and increased bond supply. Investors are demanding a premium for holding long-term treasuries due to the volatility and uncertainty of this market right now – very interesting development in the ‘risk free’ rate. The Fed has followed the cautious stance, with expectations for a rate cut in June diminishing.  

Despite rate expectations shifting, there was enough risk-on mood to send Bitcoin and Ethereum flying. As I write ETHUSD is up 40% over the past 24 hours, benefiting from a confluence of risk-on and it’s recent upgrade.

Last week much of the early moves were real-money spot buying, and with the move to BTC highs, we are seeing some leverage build. The 3-month calendar basis has almost doubled WoW, and perp funding rates are getting to fun levels. Implied volatility is also on the move, with ETH especially ripping higher. Although we are seeing leverage and open interest building in the derivatives market, we are still a ways from the Nov 2024 OI highs, and leverage is still historically contained. Perp funding rates on CEXes are still aggregatively annualising at low rates. What does all this mean? Well, there is still room to move higher. Muchos room if sentiment holds.

NASDAQ/BTC

Nasdaq/BTCUSD ratio sinking lower – with BTC continuing to outperform.

Dollar false break – with vengeance

Dollar index is back in the “Merica” range. If we get a reasonable outcome on the US/China trade talks, the blast higher could continue.

Gold trading back into the range

Don’t discount gold just yet – there is still significant scarcity bidding globally right now. For sovereigns concerned about the bond market, there ain’t too many places to go. Gold is one. Bitcoin is another.. anything that doesn’t have bearer/credit risk.

ETHUSD

ETHBTC

And it brings me great honour to finally write positively about ETH and the ETHBTC ratio. Berks our derivatives analyst is a happy man – forever the Ethereum backer. It’s good to see the spell break, but how far we can run depends very much on risk trends!

Stay safe out there.

Jon de Wet, CIO

---

Spot Desk

Market sentiment remains positive as BTC ticks above 100k for the first time since February among easing Tariff uncertainties  – now up over 40% since its local lows last month in early April. Arizona and New Hampshire enact laws permitting state involvement with cryptocurrency; allowing Arizona to maintain a reserve of unclaimed crypto property, and New Hampshire’s laws permitting officials to invest up to 5% of public funds in major cryptocurrencies.

Major crypto and altcoin flows across the desk continued to reflect the broader market sentiment amidst a spike in risk-on attitude, as we noticed a pick up in clients rotating their BTC into large cap altcoins such as Solana. BTC remained the dominant crypto volume player on desk, and interestingly, our individual investor BTC flow was skewed towards the offer while the institutional flow was skewed towards the bid.

Agency TWAP volume continues to rise as clients place orders ranging from 24-hours to 2-weeks on their various mid-cap crypto holdings. TWAPs are an excellent choice to buy or sell your crypto assets whilst minimising market impact, and generally capturing a more favourable result that principal spot trades for larger block orders. Feel free to hit up the OTC desk through the live chat on the Zerocap portal any time to discuss any enquiries!

The FED gave mixed signals as they cautioned that further developments in the Tariffs could lead to higher unemployment and inflation whilst they maintained interest rates at 4.5%. US equities responded positively, with major indices SPX, DJI and NASDAQ recording weekly gains of 2.92%, 3% and 1.91% respectively. This week, participants will be on the lookout for any surprises surrounding the huge week of US economic data; including Core inflation rates and PPI MoM.

Amongst mixed signals from the US, AUD/USD had a somewhat flat week, closing out the week -0.57%, marking its first weekly loss in 5 weeks.  In a move to increase liquidity and bolster its economy, China’s central bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 10bps and the reserve requirement ratio by 50bps. These measures, however, also raised concerns about China’s economic stability, consequently weighing on the Australian dollar due to Australia’s strong trade ties with China. The Australian dollar found some support in the anticipation of progress in upcoming US-China trade discussions, but the lack of conclusive outcomes from these negotiations prevented any substantial gains for the currency.  In light of these macroeconomic developments, the desk noticed balanced two-way USDT/AUD flows with a slight skew towards the offer.

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across major coins, altcoins, and memecoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.

Oliver Davis, OTC Trader

---

Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*

BTC and ETH basis rates have remained historically stable despite the recent rally in spot prices, suggesting that market leverage remains contained for the time being.

BTC 6.94%, ETH 4.49%

Trade Idea: ETH Discount Note
Given the recent change in ETH sentiment, now might be a good time to consider gaining some exposure to ETH. One way to play it would be to enter the market at a discounted level via a Discount Note. 

OVERVIEW

Term: 6-Months

The structure has a binary payout outcome depending on the price of ETH observed at expiry. Payout for this options strategy depends on the price of ETH at expiry with reference to the Strike Level – the two scenarios are:

Expiry Price above Strike Price (25% above current price):

• Maximum return of 36% – received in USD.

Expiry Price below Strike Price: 

• 8% discounted purchase price at current levels into the ETH token – received in Spot.

RISK PROFILE

• Maximum loss for this product is the initial investment amount.
• May suit investors with a stable to moderately bullish view on ETH.
• May not suit investors who think a major bull run in ETH is likely before expiry.
• May not suit investors who think ETH will fall significantly before expiry.

Hit the desk up for all your derivatives needs.

Berkeley Cox, Derivatives Analyst

What to Watch

A critical macro week with high-stakes US-China trade talks (Sat), CPI prints from the US and China (Tues/Sat), US retail sales (Thurs), and jobs data from the UK and Australia (Tues/Thurs). Banxico, BoJ and Riksbank add policy colour, while UK and Japan GDP (Thurs/Fri) test growth assumptions.

Markets watch Geneva talks for any de-escalation of tariffs (currently 145%), with potential partial rollback to ~50–54%. A tactical reduction would buoy risk assets short term. China CPI expected to stay in deflation (–0.1% Y/Y), reinforcing sluggish demand and tariff risks.

Tuesday 13 May – US CPI, UK Jobs, BoJ SOO

• Core CPI seen +0.3% M/M; headline may rebound to +0.2–0.3% after March’s miss. Risk skewed to sticky core, delaying Fed easing. UK jobs may show mild deterioration (unemp. to 4.5%), though wage pressures remain. BoJ opinions likely to reaffirm dovish rate outlook amid GDP cuts.

Wednesday 14 May – Aus Wages, Riksbank Minutes

• Australian wage data eyed ahead of Thursday’s jobs print; no major pressure expected. Riksbank minutes may hint at a near-term cut, aligning with dovish pivot in April. Watch for details on inflation/trade conditions needed for policy easing.

Thursday 15 May – Banxico, UK/Aus Jobs, US Retail Sales

• Banxico likely to continue cutting (from 9.00%), maintaining cautious tone on inflation risks. Australia seen adding +25k jobs with jobless rate flat at 4.1%. UK GDP set to cool to +0.1% M/M. US retail sales may rise just +0.1%—tariff fears possibly pulling demand forward.

Friday 16 May – Japan GDP, US Housing/Inflation Data

• Japan Q1 GDP expected to contract mildly (–0.1% Q/Q), supporting BoJ caution. US housing starts/building permits and Michigan inflation expectations round out the week—watch for any tariff-driven sentiment shifts or inflation reacceleration.

* Index used:

Bitcoin	Ethereum	Gold	Equities	High Yield Corporate Bonds	Commodities	Treasury Yields
BTC	ETH	PAXG	S&P 500, ASX 200, VT	HYG	SPGSCI	U.S. 10Y

Contact Us

Zerocap is a market-leading digital asset firm, providing trading, liquidity and custody to forward-thinking institutions and investors globally. To learn more, contact the team at [email protected]

DISCLAIMER

Zerocap Pty Ltd carries out regulated and unregulated activities.

Spot crypto-asset services and products offered by Zerocap are not regulated by ASIC. Zerocap Pty Ltd is registered with AUSTRAC as a DCE (digital currency exchange) service provider (DCE100635539-001).

Regulated services and products include structured products (derivatives) and funds (managed investment schemes) are available to Wholesale Clients only as per Sections 761GA and 708(10) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Sophisticated/Wholesale Client). To serve these products, Zerocap Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR: 001289130) of AFSL 340799

This material is intended solely for the information of the particular person to whom it was provided by Zerocap and should not be relied upon by any other person. The information contained in this material is general in nature and does not constitute advice, take into account financial objectives or situation of an investor; nor a recommendation to deal. . Any recipients of this material acknowledge and agree that they must conduct and have conducted their own due diligence investigation and have not relied upon any representations of Zerocap, its officers, employees, representatives or associates. Zerocap has not independently verified the information contained in this material. Zerocap assumes no responsibility for updating any information, views or opinions contained in this material or for correcting any error or omission which may become apparent after the material has been issued. Zerocap does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of advice or information which is contained in this material. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Zerocap and its officers, employees, representatives or associates do not accept any liability (whether arising in contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this material or for any resulting loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) suffered by the recipient of this material or any other person. This is a private communication and was not intended for public circulation or publication or for the use of any third party. This material must not be distributed or released in the United States. It may only be provided to persons who are outside the United States and are not acting for the account or benefit of, “US Persons” in connection with transactions that would be “offshore transactions” (as such terms are defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”)). This material does not, and is not intended to, constitute an offer or invitation in the United States, or in any other place or jurisdiction in which, or to any person to whom, it would not be lawful to make such an offer or invitation. If you are not the intended recipient of this material, please notify Zerocap immediately and destroy all copies of this material, whether held in electronic or printed form or otherwise.

Disclosure of Interest: Zerocap, its officers, employees, representatives and associates within the meaning of Chapter 7 of the Corporations Act may receive commissions and management fees from transactions involving securities referred to in this material (which its representatives may directly share) and may from time to time hold interests in the assets referred to in this material.  Investors should consider this material as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.