Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 11th March 2025

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This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

• Crypto leaders meet at Trump’s summit with strategic reserve in focus
• Strategy seeks to raise up to $21 billion via STRK perpetual preferred stock to buy bitcoin.
• Bitwise partners with Maple Finance to offer institutional DeFi and on chain credit investments
• Crypto exchange Kraken gears up for IPO as soon as the first quarter of 2026
• Sygnum Bank expands custody to include Deribit with Fireblocks tech
• Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade faces issues on Sepolia testnet, but developers deploy fix
• SEC agrees to drop lawsuit against Cumberland DRW, marking another crypto probe dissolved under Trump administration.
• Binance to delist Tether and other stablecoins for EEA users due to MiCA regulations.
• Bitcoin miner CleanSpark to join S&P SmallCap 600 index as shares decline alongside BTC.
• Coinbase launches 24/7 trading and BTC/ETH perpetuals in the U.S.
• Thailand SEC approves USDT and USDC for exchange trading.

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Technicals & Macro

BTCUSD

Source: TradingView

Key levels
66,000 / 72,000 / 92,000 / ~110,000 (just north of the all-time high)

Uncertainty is the killer.

The market continued to tumble over the past week, with Bitcoin approaching the critical $80,000 support level amid persistent selling pressure and disappointing policy developments. Market sentiment deteriorated further following the White House Crypto Summit on March 7, which failed to deliver the strong government support many investors had anticipated. 

From a macro perspective, China vowing to retaliate against U.S. tariff measures is escalating trade tensions and fueling investor uncertainty. The focal point from the crypto side was President Trump’s signing of an executive order on March 6, 2025, establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. According to the executive order, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will be capitalised exclusively with Bitcoin already owned by the Department of Treasury through criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings, with no immediate plans for new acquisitions using taxpayer funds. The U.S. government has committed to holding approximately 200,000 bitcoin that it has already seized through various criminal and civil actions, and not to sell. Although significant, the market perceived this as underwhelming and continued to sell off.

Interestingly analysts from 10X Research found that approximately 70% of the selling pressure came from investors who purchased Bitcoin within the last three months, suggesting widespread panic from the new money, which is likely leading to extension of moves.

We’ve mentioned it before, but it’s not the actual policies that are the problem, but the uncertainty that markets are not liking. Trump’s credibility is increasingly questioned—making it difficult to discern policy certainty—resulting in a broad sell-off across both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. Annoyingly, the volatility over the past week may become a recurring feature of markets during Trump’s presidency.

Where do we go from here? We are seeing some love above 77,000 – the breaking point from the small ascending range in Nov 2024.  If markets decline further, we’ll likely see 73,500, closing the fractal gap. If we rally, 84,000 would be the short-term target from the prior breaking point.

It’s gonna be volatile in the new-world order!

Dollar index takes a long dive

DXY truly seeing some anti-American sentiment now, with concerns on economic stability.

Gold poking takes a breather

Gold buoyant on safe-haven flows.

ETHUSD

ETHUSD taking the brunt of the hit, down 12% over the past 24 hours. Struggling to catch a bid here ole ETH, ole ETH.

ETHBTC

ETHBTC – of course, getting a dose from the market blues.

Of note… the futures basis is expanding. In traditional markets, declining asset prices often coincide with compression in futures premiums, as pessimism spreads across time horizons. However, Bitcoin’s futures market is exhibiting contrary behavior, with expanding premiums despite recent price declines. This could be due to ETF flows hedging where CoC is cheap (sub 7% with leverage in futures), but could also be a sign of a growing bucket of contrarian trades with leverage. Take this as you will!

Safe trading out there!

Jon de Wet, CIO

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Spot Desk

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered this week from the previous dip, benefiting from ongoing weakness in the US Dollar (USD). Softer-than-expected US jobs data signaled that the US economy could be slowing, adding further pressure to the US Dollar. Bond yields also contributed to USD’s decline, allowing AUD/USD to rebound from Tuesday’s low of $0.6187, climbing above the January 6 high of $0.6302 and reaching $0.6363 on Thursday before pulling back. 

Meanwhile, Australia’s economy expanded by 0.6% in Q4 2024, up from 0.3% in the previous quarter and surpassing market forecasts of 0.5%. This marked the 13th straight quarter of growth and the fastest pace since late 2022, fueled by a rebound in household spending, particularly on essential expenses such as rent and healthcare. Investors now turn their focus to the upcoming US Year-over-Year inflation data, set for release on Wednesday, with forecasts at 2.9%.

As mentioned previously, Bitcoin led sharp declines, dropping as much as 6% after U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve failed to excite markets. Sentiment remained weak following the crypto summit on Saturday, which did little to restore confidence. Institutional demand for Bitcoin continued to decline, with Bitcoin spot ETF data showing a $74.2 million outflow on Monday, adding to the previous week’s $2.39 billion in net outflows. 

On our desk, off-ramping demand remained steady, though we observed an uptick in on-ramping activity toward the end of the week. Aside from on/off-ramping trends, trading activity on the desk leaned more toward selling, with Bitcoin seeing more sell interest, and demand for major altcoins like ETH, XRP, and SOL remaining subdued amidst the volatile market.

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across major coins, altcoins, and memecoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.

Reshad Nahimzada, Trading Analyst

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Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*

Basis rates on BTC and ETH remained relatively flat throughout the week but are rising as we speak.

For investors looking to ‘buy the dip’ – accumulation structured product strategies are worth considering: 

SOL Accumulate
Suitable for SOL Investors, Funds, and Long-Term Holders, a SOL accumulator is a structured product designed for investors looking to systematically buy SOL over time, often at potentially better prices than a simple dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) strategy.

Key Terms

• Underlying Asset: Solana (SOL)
• Initial Fixing Price: 120 USD
• Tenor: 13 weeks
• Strike Price: 80% of the initial fixing price = 96 USD
• Knock-Out (KO) Level: 120% of the initial fixing price = 144 USD

Leverage & Purchase Price

• If SOL fixing price is above the strike (96 USD), the investor buys 1× notional SOL at 96 USD.
• If SOL fixing price is below the strike (96 USD), the investor buys 2× notional SOL at 96 USD.

Observation & Settlement

• Observation Frequency: Daily barrier observation
• Settlement Frequency: Weekly
• Knock-Out Event: If at any observation, SOL’s fixing price reaches or rises above 144 USD, the product terminates early.

Key reasons why an investor might look into this strategy:

1. Accumulating a Large SOL Position Over Time
2. Potentially Better Pricing vs. Spot Purchases
3. Built-in Exit if SOL Surges (Knock-Out Protection)
4. Weekly Cash Flow Optimization
5. Potential for a Favorable Exit if SOL Surges (Knock-Out Protection)
   1. If SOL rises above 144 USD, the accumulator terminates early, and no further purchases occur.
   2. This acts as a built-in exit strategy, preventing the investor from continuing to buy into an aggressive rally where they might prefer to wait for a pullback instead.

What to Watch

US CPI (Feb) – Wednesday, 13 Mar: Markets expect +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.5%) and core CPI at +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.4%). Recent price pressures, including higher ISM Prices Paid readings and tariff concerns, could influence Fed policy. Hotter-than-expected data may dampen rate-cut expectations, while a softer print would reinforce market pricing for cuts in 2025.

US PPI (Feb) – Thursday, 14 Mar: Producer prices are expected to rise +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.4%), with core PPI also seen at +0.3% M/M. Businesses have flagged rising input costs due to supply chain disruptions and incoming tariffs, which could feed into consumer inflation.

US University of Michigan Sentiment (Mar, Prelim) – Friday, 15 Mar: Consumer sentiment is in focus, particularly inflation expectations, which NY Fed’s Williams has highlighted as a key metric. The February survey showed 1yr inflation expectations at 4.3% and 5yr at 3.5%, with any further rise potentially influencing Fed rhetoric.

US Tariff Hike (Steel & Aluminium) – Wednesday, 13 Mar: A 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports takes effect, adding cost pressures for US manufacturers. While Treasury Secretary Bessent downplayed inflation risks, businesses are already preemptively raising prices, which could have broader market implications.

* Index used:

Bitcoin	Ethereum	Gold	Equities	High Yield Corporate Bonds	Commodities	Treasury Yields
BTC	ETH	PAXG	S&P 500, ASX 200, VT	HYG	SPGSCI	U.S. 10Y

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