Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 6th October 2025

Zerocap is a market-leading digital asset firm, providing trading, liquidity and custody to forward-thinking institutions and investors globally. To learn more, contact the team at [email protected]

This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

• BTC hits a new all-time high of $125,708 as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs post $3.24B inflows; Ethereum ETFs take in $1.3B.
• Perpetual DEXs surpass $1 trillion monthly volume in September – led by Aster, HyperLiquid and Lighter.
• Stablecoin market cap tops $300B for the first time, with USDT leading market share at $176B.
• Coinbase seeks OCC federal charter to integrate crypto and TradFi, and expands Samsung Pay support for over 75M U.S. Galaxy users.
• Dozens of new crypto ETF filings submitted following SEC approval of streamlined listing standards.
• Robinhood CEO predicts tokenization framework in major markets by 2030, signalling long-term growth potential.

---

Technicals & Macro

Markets

Source: TradingView

Markets climbed through the week despite political gridlock in Washington. The US government entered its first shutdown since 2018, suspending key data releases including the monthly jobs report. With official data on hold, traders turned to ADP, which showed payrolls down 32,000 in September, indicating cooler labour market conditions. 

Risk sentiment however stayed firm. The S&P gained 1.1 percent, gold rose 3.1 percent to a fresh record of $3900 USD, and Bitcoin was the clear outperformer. The shutdown narrative has shifted market positioning; a prolonged standoff may weigh on the dollar, while easing expectations could further support hedges like gold, equities, and crypto.

Volatility remains contained, with the VIX near 16.6 and the curve in steep contango. That calm surface however may not last. This week’s FOMC minutes and a full slate of Fed speakers will test how far the “data-dependant” Fed can guide policy without fresh data. Markets will be watching for any cracks in the higher-for-longer stance.

Uptober is here

Bitcoin extended its rally into fresh record territory last week, breaking through $125,000 on October 5 and briefly touching $125,600 before settling just below. The move pushed total crypto market capitalisation beyond $4.3 trillion and triggered more than $130 million in short liquidations, amplifying the rally through forced buying and short-covering momentum.

The move was underpinned by a combination of macro tailwinds and structural demand. The ongoing US government shutdown reinforced Bitcoin’s “digital gold” appeal amid policy paralysis and a softer dollar. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract heavy inflows, pulling in over $3.2 billion for the week, with BlackRock’s iShares fund alone accounting for $524 million in a single day. Meanwhile, the long-awaited $1.6 billion in FTX creditor repayments began flowing back into the system, adding liquidity and risk appetite across the majors. On top of this, Exchange reserves sit near six-year lows, signalling institutional accumulation and tighter supply.

Bitcoin derivatives flows confirmed the shift: the volatility term structure flattened as spot and vol rose together – a positive spot/vol correlation that reflects demand for upside exposure rather than protection. Longer-dated skew remains attractive, with calls still cheap relative to puts, prompting traders to express bullish bias through call spreads instead of outright long calls to manage the term premium. Open interest climbs to an ATH as positioning turns decisively long, yet RSI readings remain neutral, suggesting the move isn’t overstretched.

Seasonality, coined as “Uptober” by crypto-folks, adds an extra tailwind. October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, averaging 28 percent gains since 2013. With macro uncertainty continuing to feed the “store of value” narrative and current derivative flows leaning long, any short-term pullback looks likely to be absorbed quickly. The setup into the year-end remains firmly constructive. Stay safe!

Emir Ibrahim, Analyst

---

Spot Desk

Flows on the desk this week were a clear return to tradition, dominated by majors as activity in BTC and ETH accounted for the lion’s share of trading volumes – echoing the dynamic that defined the earlier months of the year. With that, there was still selective altcoin engagement amongst traders; we saw measured participation across names like Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI), as well as some smaller plays such as GEOD, BASEDAI, and L3 as market players looked to rebalance their exposures – taking positioning around both new narratives and old favourites.

Bitcoin (BTC) was the clear star of the week as it spectacularly returned to form to mark the start of the fabled Q4 – opening at 112,163 before posting six of seven green sessions to rally to a fresh all-time high at 125,708 in Sunday’s trade. This came as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $3.24 billion in inflows – the second-largest week on record and a $4.14 billion swing from the prior week’s net outflows. Ethereum (ETH) followed closely, climbing from 4,142 to 4,618 as spot ETH ETFs drew $1.3 billion in new capital. With majors back in control, “Uptober” has kicked off in classic fashion, and we’re seeing risk appetite begin to reignite across the board.

In a week for new heights across the board, stablecoins joined the party as the total market capitalisation of stables broke above $300 billion for the first time – a fresh record underscoring renewed participation across crypto markets. In line with this climb, the desk continues to service extremely robust activity across USDT and USDC pairs versus AUD, USD, EUR and NZD, as well as continually rising interest in AUDD.

On the macro side, risk sentiment remained constructive as equities pushed higher following continued rate cut optimism. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 3.6% in September after August’s 25bps reduction, keeping borrowing costs at their lowest since April 2023. While we definitely saw some intraweek volatility, AUD/USD spent the week trading largely sideways in a familiar range between 0.6544 and 0.6629 – with price action reflecting this relatively quieter domestic backdrop.

​Elsewhere in the space, the on-chain derivatives race showed no signs of slowing as September marked a milestone for the sector, with total perpetual protocol volumes surpassing $1 trillion for the first time – a 48% jump from August. HyperLiquid (HYPE) and Aster (ASTER) continue to see trading interest on the desk, as the “Perp DEX wars” intensify and continue to capture attention and flows.

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across majors, stablecoins, and altcoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.

Benjamin Mensah, OTC Trader

---

Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*

BTC and ETH basis rates continued to decline over the week, with BTC falling to 6.45% annualised and ETH to 5.3%.

The 3-Month basis is starting to rally on the back of BTC breaking highs. We are moving toward the range-highs of the range over the past year. With a sustained topside move, we’d expect range-highs to break, and the basis to expand further. Anything above 10% annualised presents a great opportunity to enter a cash and carry trade. 

Buying spot BTC and shorting the calendar future provides a delta-neutral price structure that arbitrages funding rates. This is best taken when market exuberance is at highs. If you believe the basis goes higher, setting up a short calendar / long-spot trade as the basis approaches 13% to 15% could be a way to secure some strong USD yields in a macro environment that is in a cutting cycle. 

Why the Structure Makes Sense Now:

• Market leading yields: Strong USD return structure if held to expiry.
• Tactical Positioning: Allows investors to hold BTC exposure, and further position USD yields on excess cash holdings by entering this funding trade.
• Portfolio Discipline: Useful if markets take a dive – you’ve locked in the funding rate for the term.

Risks

• Basis expansion: If the futures basis expands aggressively and you are leveraged in any way, margin maintenance may be strained.
• Liquidity crunch: In wild markets, any derivatives contract can experience wild swings that threaten the underlying collateral.
• Counterparty risk: Depending on the venue you hold your positions, creditworthiness is an important factor to consider.

Hit the derivs desk for pricing!

Jon de Wet, CIO

---

What to Watch

MON: EZ Construction PMI (Sep), Sentix (Oct), US Employment Trends (Sep), New Zealand NZIER (Q3)

TUE: EIA STEO; German Industrial Orders (Aug), US International Trade (Aug), Canadian Trade Balance (Aug), Ivey PMI (Sep), Chinese FX Reserves (Sep)

WED: RBNZ & NBP Policy Announcements, FOMC Minutes (Sep), BoJ’s Ueda; Japanese Overtime Pay (Aug), Swedish CPIF Flash (Sep)

THU: ECB Minutes (Sep), Eurogroup Meeting; German Trade Balance (Aug), US Weekly Claims (TBC)FRI: Norwegian CPI (Aug), Canadian Employment Report (Sep), US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Oct), Chinese M2/New Yuan Loans (Sep)

* Index used:

Bitcoin	Ethereum	Gold	Equities	High Yield Corporate Bonds	Commodities	Treasury Yields
BTC	ETH	PAXG	S&P 500, ASX 200, VT	HYG	SPGSCI	U.S. 10Y

Contact Us

Zerocap is a market-leading digital asset firm, providing trading, liquidity and custody to forward-thinking institutions and investors globally. To learn more, contact the team at [email protected]

DISCLAIMER

Zerocap Pty Ltd carries out regulated and unregulated activities.

Spot crypto-asset services and products offered by Zerocap are not regulated by ASIC. Zerocap Pty Ltd is registered with AUSTRAC as a DCE (digital currency exchange) service provider (DCE100635539-001).

Regulated services and products include structured products (derivatives) and funds (managed investment schemes) are available to Wholesale Clients only as per Sections 761GA and 708(10) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Sophisticated/Wholesale Client). To serve these products, Zerocap Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR: 001289130) of AFSL 340799

This material is intended solely for the information of the particular person to whom it was provided by Zerocap and should not be relied upon by any other person. The information contained in this material is general in nature and does not constitute advice, take into account financial objectives or situation of an investor; nor a recommendation to deal. . Any recipients of this material acknowledge and agree that they must conduct and have conducted their own due diligence investigation and have not relied upon any representations of Zerocap, its officers, employees, representatives or associates. Zerocap has not independently verified the information contained in this material. Zerocap assumes no responsibility for updating any information, views or opinions contained in this material or for correcting any error or omission which may become apparent after the material has been issued. Zerocap does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of advice or information which is contained in this material. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Zerocap and its officers, employees, representatives or associates do not accept any liability (whether arising in contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this material or for any resulting loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) suffered by the recipient of this material or any other person. This is a private communication and was not intended for public circulation or publication or for the use of any third party. This material must not be distributed or released in the United States. It may only be provided to persons who are outside the United States and are not acting for the account or benefit of, “US Persons” in connection with transactions that would be “offshore transactions” (as such terms are defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”)). This material does not, and is not intended to, constitute an offer or invitation in the United States, or in any other place or jurisdiction in which, or to any person to whom, it would not be lawful to make such an offer or invitation. If you are not the intended recipient of this material, please notify Zerocap immediately and destroy all copies of this material, whether held in electronic or printed form or otherwise.

Disclosure of Interest: Zerocap, its officers, employees, representatives and associates within the meaning of Chapter 7 of the Corporations Act may receive commissions and management fees from transactions involving securities referred to in this material (which its representatives may directly share) and may from time to time hold interests in the assets referred to in this material.  Investors should consider this material as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.