Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 8 September 2026

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This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs record US$986.9M in net inflows; Ethereum ETFs added US$218.4M, marking three straight positive weeks for both.
• Revolut secures conditional OCC approval to form a National Bank; takes a key step towards offering U.S. banking products including loans, stablecoins and credit cards .
• UBS, Bank of Montreal and Jane Street disclose combined US$75M in U.S. Hyperliquid ETF holdings.
• Liquid Network pauses Bitcoin sidechain after white-hat hackers withdraw 4000 BTC (US$320M).
• Zcash tops US$1,000 as ETF inflows accelerate and new mining power flows into the network.

Technicals & Macro

Markets

Two distinct shocks landed inside a single week, and their implications point in the same direction. The first was geopolitical. After approximately a month of relative calm, US Central Command struck Iranian targets on Tuesday and Tehran responded with a missile barrage on a US base in Jordan, prompting a threat alert in Bahrain. President Trump publicly rejected negotiations while asserting control of the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers, including one off Kharg Island, in retaliation for ballistic missile attacks on US Navy vessels, and Tehran responded by attacking US-linked shipping and signalling that it will impose a restricted maritime zone beyond the Strait in coming days. Brent rose more than 8 percent over the week to a Friday settlement of $96.28 and has extended toward $97.05 this morning, its highest since July.

The second was Friday’s employment report, which was a substantial upside surprise. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 against a Dow Jones consensus near 53,000, with June and July both revised higher and the unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent, in line. Supporting data from Challenger, Gray and Christmas showed planned job cuts over the first eight months of 2026 at a four-year low and hiring plans at their strongest since 2023, which materially undercuts the argument that AI adoption is displacing labour at pace.

Source: Bloomberg

Taken together, an economy adding jobs at three times the expected rate while energy costs climb roughly 10 percent in a week leaves the Federal Reserve with a straightforward case for tightening. Market-implied odds of a September increase have risen to 58 percent ahead of the 16 to 17 September meeting, with the benchmark rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Governor Barr stated during the week that he would support a hike if inflation appears not to be moderating sufficiently, echoing Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole framing. Wednesday’s August CPI release is the final input, and it arrives with Brent up 10.6 percent over four weeks.

Source: Polymarket

The rates complex did most of the week’s work. The 10-year yield reached approximately 4.798 percent on Wednesday, its highest since January 2025, and the 2-year set a fresh 52-week high following Friday’s payrolls, with front-end maturities generally leading. The curve is now discounting a Federal Reserve that has both the inflation justification and the labour-market cover to tighten, a combination absent for most of this year.

We would note the asymmetry into Wednesday’s CPI. The disinflation recorded in July was substantially an energy story, and Brent has since retraced the entirety of that decline and more. A firm core print on top of the payrolls beat would likely move September from a 58 percent proposition to the base case. Conversely, given how far pricing has already moved, a soft print carries meaningful potential to unwind the recent rise in yields. With Warsh continuing to withhold forward guidance, the distribution around the meeting remains wider than participants have historically been accustomed to.

Cryptocurrency

Digital assets seem to be in a comfortable position, and the derivatives data supports that reading more than the price action does. Bitcoin trades near $79,575 this morning, down approximately 0.4 percent on the session within a range of $79,460 to $80,494, and up roughly 1.4 percent over the week from Friday’s $79,935 close. It briefly touched $80,120 after the payrolls print before retreating below $80,000. Ether is near $2,340.

Source: Coinglass

The positioning picture is the constructive part. Aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest stands at approximately $53.44 billion, down 1.64 percent, or $890 million, over the seven days to 6 September, having averaged $54.63 billion with a high of $58.12 billion and a low of $52.88 billion. Perpetual funding is positive but subdued at 4.39 percent annualised. Spot ETF flows have been robust, with approximately $4.25 billion over thirty days including a $730.9 million single-day inflow on 3 September, and roughly $987 million for the week, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing $731 million in its largest single day since January. When the payrolls print hit, approximately $278 million of derivatives were liquidated, predominantly longs, which is a modest figure against a $53 billion open interest base.

That combination, open interest drifting lower while spot ETF demand runs at nearly a billion dollars a week, describes a market where the marginal buyer is unlevered. It is precisely the configuration that limits downside from forced selling.

Beneath Bitcoin, risk appetite is clearly broadening. Aggregate altcoin open interest has overtaken Bitcoin’s for the first time in 21 months. Zcash is the clearest expression: futures open interest has climbed to approximately $2.3 to $2.4 billion, the token cleared $1,000 in early September, rose about 20 percent on 4 September to an intraday high near $1,023 while liquidating $36.6 million of leveraged positions of which $34.5 million were shorts, and trades near $1,192 this morning after a further 11 percent gain. That follows a first half in which assets excluding Bitcoin and Ether lost nearly 23 percent, so this is a recovery from a low base rather than an established altcoin cycle. The leverage built in ZEC specifically is worth monitoring.

Levels to watch are $81,000 to $82,000 as resistance, with a break above $82,300 turning the technical picture decisively constructive, and $78,400 to $78,600 as support, below which a retracement toward $76,000 to $78,000 becomes likely on weak flow. Wednesday’s CPI is the near-term catalyst.

Emir Ibrahim

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Spot Desk

Digital assets continued to consolidate through the week following August’s explosive move higher, with majors trading sideways within well-defined ranges as stretched positioning reset; broadly “sticking the landing” in a healthy consolidation that preserved earlier gains. 

Further out the risk curve, animal spirits began to reawaken as participation across the long tail broadened materially, with select names including Arbitrum (ARB), Zcash (ZEC) and Near (NEAR) re-rating higher on idiosyncratic narrative flows against the constructive majors backdrop. Institutional demand also remained engaged through the passive channel, with US spot BTC ETF products attracting close to US$1B of weekly inflows and ETH products a further US$215M, marking three consecutive weeks of net inflows for both.

Client flow dynamics on the desk were broadly consistent with the contained tape: BTC carried a slight net selling skew on softer volumes, while ETH recorded a strong buying bias on activity similarly below the prior expansion. USDT and USDC continued to see net off-ramping, with USDT secondary markets trading above parity at times amid broader crypto strength – a notable regime shift in a year where USD-denominated stablecoins have predominantly traded at discounts reflecting the preference for US dollar liquidity. AUDD and AUDM remained well utilised in largely one-sided flows as clients continued to embed AUD-denominated stablecoins into on-ramping and treasury-management workflows.

Zcash (ZEC) continued to rally into fresh all-time highs as ETF-related demand strengthened and miner participation accelerated, entering price discovery as the non-sovereign store-of-value thesis gained traction both within and beyond crypto-native circles against a backdrop of renewed fiat-debasement concerns. Arbitrum also outperformed, benefiting from a value-accrual narrative as Robinhood Chain – the popular US brokerage’s Ethereum Layer 2 built on the Arbitrum stack – continued to gain on-chain traction, with TVL approaching US$1B and daily DEX volumes reaching record levels above US$1.7B.

In FX, AUD/USD posted its tenth consecutive green week, rising from 0.7157 to 0.7204 as persistent USD softness outweighed the otherwise hawkish signal from Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks. Friday’s stronger-than-expected NFP briefly supported the dollar, though the move was fully retraced before the New York close as the broader USD downtrend continued to underpin AUD strength. Domestically, Australian Q2 GDP printed slightly above expectations at 0.4% q/q and 2.1% y/y, though the underlying detail pointed to a clear loss of momentum from H2 2025, with household consumption heavily supported by EV sales and housing continuing to soften as prices fell 0.9% in August. With the USD remaining the dominant marginal driver of the pair, Friday’s US inflation prints present the next key input ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where volatile market pricing currently reflects a 58.4% probability of a 25bp hike.

In flows, desk AUD activity was broadly balanced with a slight selling skew as clients monetised currency strength into USD-denominated stablecoins; elsewhere, NZD was net sold, EUR and GBP were bought, and CAD was offered.

The OTC desk continues to provide tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions and competitive pricing across major digital assets, stablecoins, selected altcoins and key fiat currency pairs. With T+0 settlement capability, the desk continues to facilitate efficient execution and settlement across client flows.

Ben Mensah, OTC Trader

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Derivatives Desk

The derivatives market is constructive, but the quality of leverage is becoming more important than the quantity. BTC reached a three-month high last week before retracing toward $78k, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed roughly $987m over the week — taking three-week inflows to ~$4bn.  At the same time, BTC and ETH futures positioning remains relatively light, with open interest muted and funding positive rather than stretched. That is a much healthier setup than a rally built on aggressive leverage.

The more interesting development is further down the risk curve. On 6 September, aggregate altcoin perpetual open interest overtook Bitcoin for the first time since December 2024, while BTC perp OI sat around $23.9bn, roughly 37% of tracked perpetual positions. This is a classic sign of leverage migrating from the core asset into higher-beta trades. It is supportive for breadth, but it also introduces fragility: thinner books and more concentrated positioning mean any macro disappointment can generate a much faster liquidation cycle outside BTC.

Options remain notably calmer. BTC and ETH 30-day implied volatility indices were subdued last week, while $82k and $84k BTC calls led Deribit volume. Seven-day skew has pulled back from recent highs, suggesting upside demand is rebuilding without the market paying aggressively for convexity. The interpretation is fairly clean: traders want exposure to a breakout, but they are not yet pricing one as inevitable.

The problem is timing. PPI is due 10 September, CPI 11 September and the FOMC concludes on 16 September. Markets currently price roughly a 60% probability of a September hike, while Brent is back near $99 and the US 10-year around 4.80%. That combination should keep front-end gamma supported even if longer-dated vol remains relatively contained.

Source: Fedwatch

The house view is constructive – BTC’s flow picture is improving, and the narrative is once again building some momentum. Be careful on the altcoin side!

Safe trading out there!

Jon de Wet
CIO

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What to Watch

Tue: CN Balance of Trade, RBA Hunter Speech

Wed: CN Inflation Rate YoY, KR Unemployment Rate, US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate

Thu: ECB Interest Rate Decision, US PPI MoM

Fri: GB GDP MoM, US Core Inflation Rate YoY

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