Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 30th June 2025

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This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

• Circle’s market cap surges past USDC, nearing $66B, with record highs and expansion in Europe via Luxembourg license.
• Metaplanet plans to inject $5 billion into its U.S. subsidiary to support its global expansion and enhance its Bitcoin treasury strategy.
• Tether increases its involvement in sports by acquiring over 10% of Juventus
• Chinese broker GF Securities launches offshore yuan-backed tokenized securities, and HashKey’s HSK surges 90% as Chinese brokers eye crypto.

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Technicals & Macro

BTCUSD

Source: TradingView

74,000  / 92,000 / 100,000 / ~110,000 / 112,000 (ATH)

Volatility… down?

Admittedly we positioned last week that the Iran-Israel conflict had some fairly serious implications. Trump not only took out (some) of Iran’s nuclear capability, he also risked potential career immolation in doing so. The President was getting frustrated by the end of the week, showing disappointment on both sides of the fight to reporters. The potential blockage by Iran of the Strait of Hormuz – a critical passage for global oil trade, which handles about 20% of the world’s supply, was the potential economic spark here to light the volatility fire. We may have a ceasefire, but we are no closer to a closure on this issue.

BTC volatility says it all, alongside the S&P 500 breaking all-time highs despite an outlier negative US GDP figure, elevated PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), and Trump threatening to terminate trade discussions with Canada. The market is either not believing Trump, or deciding that liquidity expansion will continue to drive assets higher.

Crypto stocks told the other story though, with  Coinbase and Circle taking 10% to 15% drawdowns. Given the recent run, these are small blips in the scheme of things – but notable to see them break correlations.  BTC and ETH are higher and stable, with altcoins struggling (again). Bitcoin is the standout performer here with strong inflows on the IBIT ETF of over $1.3B. Strategy continued the corporate bidding, with holdings now worth over $63B, over $20B of which is pure profit. We’ve got multiple IPO announcements in the mix which is fuelling crypto listing  fever – Gemini, Kraken and Bullish in the wings getting ready,

The institutional flows don’t stop there: the Solana ETF is on the way – with 9 issuers now in the race for a SOL ETF approval. Bloomberg analysts are giving a 90% chance of SEC approval, potentially as early as July. Given the bullish context, BTCUSD should stay near highs, so long as Iran-Israel doesn’t escalate.

30Y Treasury Yield

The 30Y yield is still elevated, combined with a sinking USD, showing the market is still risk pricing the “risk-free” rate.

DXY bleeding lower

Terrible GDP revision, oil spikes (now moderating), the Fed’s rate cut expectations growing, and the Trump effect are all captured in this chart.

Gold holding the range

I would expect gold to be higher on the risk of geopolitical unrest picking up in the middle-east again. Complacency setting in?

Fedwatch rate cut odds increasing

Probabilities dropping by around 10 percentage points WoW, but still showing a clear hold at the next meeting. Iran could shift the weighting further, but unlikely we’ll see a cut.

NASDAQ/BTCUSD

Despite Nasdaq/BTCUSD holding below, we are synthetic (if only by sentiment) sellers of this pair. Last week we imagined an imaginary fade of the move. The desk opinion is that bearer asset rotation (BTC and Gold) is only in its early stages.

Basis expansion holding near benchmark rates

Leverage contained.. still. Does retail come screaming in when Bitcoin breaks highs? It’s a different market to 2021.

ETHUSD

ETHBTC

Ethereum holding up the back of risk-on intermarket moves. Nice to see ETH catching, and holding, a bid! There’s a lot to unpack, the key item to watch is the ceasefire.

Stay safe out there.

Jon de Wet, CIO

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Spot Desk

Crypto rebounded sharply last week despite lingering geopolitical headlines. The brief dip below $100k BTC on news of U.S strike on Iran was swiftly reversed, with BTC closing +8% at ~$107.6k. Broader alts followed suit – with ETH and SOL outperforming at +11% and +16% respectively aided by risk on flows and crude falling at an accelerating pace (WTI: $78 -> $64), suggesting that markets are swiftly discounting escalation and geopolitical  risk premiums. From a broader view – YTD, BTC remains the standout at +15% while ETH and SOL lag >20% behind, which highlights the resilience of BTC amid broad vol compressions. BTC’s rally occurred alongside a -3% drop in gold, reinforcing its current decorrelation. The institutional narrative holds strong!

On the FX side, DXY eased off highs and has broadly compressed against G10 crosses throughout most of last week, dipping ~0.4% as dovish bets gained modest traction post-PCE. However, Fed expectations remain cautious, with July cuts still priced in and President Trump pushing for earlier cuts. The Aussie side continues to grind higher, buoyed by firm commodity risk and improved global sentiment. Softer U.S. housing data also helped AUD claw back ground, but upside is capped by lingering RBA/Fed divergence and continued trade tension headlines. 

Flows were mixed through the week, reflecting a market pricing in macro uncertainty across multiple axes. We saw a combination of left and right-hand flows in the USDT/AUD cross, slowly skewing back to on-ramping as the Aussie edged higher. The usual Tether to USD off-ramps into the Asian night session remain in firm demand, but this time we saw substantial interest in the USDC/USD pair, likely tied to capital rotation and real-world settlement needs.

On the majors/alts side, we noted a significant drop-off in outright BTC/ETH/SOL selling or buying compared to last month. Instead, flows were largely crypto-crypto, with clients rotating from majors into USDT (notably SOL and ETH sell-downs) suggesting a shift in risk positioning or preparation for dry powder deployment ahead of upcoming catalysts (e.g., NFP, FOMC, and potential Trump Fed Chair announcement).

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across major coins, altcoins, and memecoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.

Emir Ibrahim, Analyst

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Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*

BTC and ETH basis rates are down at 2-year lows, in line with our expectations over recent months. As mentioned in past weeks, we maintain a near-term bearish outlook on basis, with BTC’s 90-day basis now at 4.97% and ETH’s at 4.41%.

Trade Idea: 

Long Bitcoin Upside Volatility via Dec 150k Call Options

Thesis: BTC Vol is in the dumps

Bitcoin volatility is currently trading at historical lows (BTC DVOL Index down below 40).

Deribit’s BTC IV percentile radar shows that BTC’s IV has only traded lower than the current level 1.4% of the time in the last year see below.

This offers an attractive entry point for long vol exposure. Buying upside vol could be a good play here with a confluence of supportive macro and crypto-specific catalysts through year-end:

• Liquidity Tailwinds: With July rate cut odds increasing and at least two cuts priced in by year-end, easing liquidity conditions could drive renewed capital flows into risk assets – Bitcoin should lead the charge here.
  
• Regulatory Clarity: Signals from U.S. regulators suggest a more constructive stance toward crypto banking, with Chair Powell expressing openness and a stablecoin bill under review—lowering regulatory overhangs.
  
• Geopolitical Stabilization: Recent signs of de-escalation in Middle East tensions reduce tail risk and support risk-on sentiment.

Trade:
Buy Dec 2025 150k BTC call options, delta-hedged.

This trade provides convex exposure to upside volatility at relatively low premium, while hedging directional risk. A sharp rally, volatility repricing, or even a dip back to the lows could favour this trade.

Hit the desk up for pricing.

Berkeley Cox, Derivatives Analyst

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What to Watch

A heavy macro calendar sets the stage for volatility across USD, risk assets, and crypto sentiment:

– US NFP (Thu): Expectations are softening (129k vs prior 139k), but any upside surprise will be weaponized by Trump to push for earlier cuts.

– ISM Prints (Tue/Thu): Manufacturing and services PMIs are eyed for signs of tariff-induced cost pressures and domestic demand resilience.

– EZ CPI (Tue): A soft print could reignite ECB cut pricing; recent national prints (France, Spain) were hotter, adding uncertainty.

– BoJ Tankan (Tue): Tariff drag likely dents sentiment in autos; services may remain resilient.

– China PMIs (Mon/Thu): Manufacturing seen edging higher, but export orders and broader sentiment remain tentative despite tariff easing.

A combination of weak U.S. jobs data, sticky inflation in Europe, and soft China PMI readings could spark renewed USD volatility, positioning crypto as a hedge if macro surprises to the downside.

Emir Ibrahim, Analyst

* Index used:

Bitcoin	Ethereum	Gold	Equities	High Yield Corporate Bonds	Commodities	Treasury Yields
BTC	ETH	PAXG	S&P 500, ASX 200, VT	HYG	SPGSCI	U.S. 10Y

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