Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 2nd June 2025

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This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

🚀 Trump Media plans a $2.5 billion Bitcoin treasury and a multi-billion dollar Bitcoin buying strategy, mimicking Michael Saylor’s approach.

🏦 Wall Street’s Cantor Fitzgerald launches a $2 billion Bitcoin lending program with first deals to FalconX and Maple Finance.

🎮 GameStop acquires 4,710 Bitcoin for about $512 million, boosting shares.

🧠 Ethereum’s treasury strategy by Consensys and Joseph Lubin triggers significant gains for gaming firm SharpLink, with Lubin poised to become a major Ethereum figure.

🇷🇺 Russia’s central bank approves non-deliverable crypto derivatives for qualified investors with strict ownership limits, allowing financial firms to offer crypto-linked instruments.

🦊 MetaMask adds Solana support, enabling Ethereum account management, transfers, swaps—mobile support coming soon; Solana network now live on MetaMask.

🇺🇸 Ripple launches OTC crypto brokerage in the U.S., and stablecoins boost treasury bill demand, reflecting ongoing institutional adoption.⚡ Solana aims for 150ms finality with the Alpenglow upgrade, enhancing its consensus layer.

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Technicals & Macro

BTCUSD

Source: TradingView

Key levels
74,000  / 100,000 / ~110,000 / 120,000 (ATH)

The surge

The Trump effect hits again.

Asian stocks are falling as I write, with China and the US accusing each other of violating their trade deals, and further announcing a doubling of US steel and aluminium tariffs to 50 per cent. We are in a see-saw market that is driven by escalating and de-escalating tariff concerns. Which is really a sentiment proxy for a potential US recession, and thus global growth concerns. Take the thinking a layer deeper and there is the question of whether the US eventually loses its place as the global super-power. Trump is making a big bet, but as we’ve outlined, the pain trade can only go so far before he protects his legacy. If stocks tank during his Presidency for an extended period, it threatens more than just a Presidential term and therefore there’s a more than reasonable chance he finds a middle-ground that reduces global recession risks, and sees asset prices stabilise. The question is when.

30Y Treasury Yield

The result of ongoing tensions can be seen in the 30Y Treasury yields. After a spike above 5%, we are still holding at historically high levels. This is not a typical cutting cycle in the US. A risk premium is being priced into the longer-end of the curve – and once again, the market is looking for bearer instruments to hedge bearer risk. As I write, treasury yield futures are moving higher, but zooming out you can see the slow grind higher in risk premium built into the 30Y.

Fedwatch

It’s no wonder that the next Fed meeting has all but totally priced in a hold. We expect minimal change to this over the next fortnight.

Gold trading into a wedge

The OG bearer asset. Gold is hanging in there against this backdrop, forming a nice longer-term wedge. If the 30Y continues to hold up, and tensions stay at equal or elevated levels, a break higher would be the path of least resistance.

DXY chopping up the range

DXY  chopping up the range low. Direction here will be the third layer effect – US recession driven. The big question on every hedge fund’s mind – if we move toward a global recession, along with ongoing uncertainty in the US, what does this do to the greenback? In a normal market, it would bid as a safe-haven alongside US treasuries, driving yields down. However, this is not a normal market.

NASDAQ/BTCUSD

So where does this leave Bitcoin, the other bearer asset? It’s still got the risk asset hangover, which leads to equity-like flows during risk-off moves despite growing store-of-value narrative. We didn’t see this over the past weekend, but it is now falling alongside Asian stocks. Dynamic beta is still at play here. Looking at orderflow, we are still clearly in the zone of big corporate bidding from Strategy and other new players on the block. The Nasdaq/BTC ratio rallied a little last week, but we expect further Bitcoin dominance on a monthly basis.

Basis expansion retreating

Futures and perpetual funding rates have moderated, but not from elevated levels. We are still sitting here at historically low levels, indicating lower leverage and maturation of hedging flows. It also provides insight that the retail and fast money speculators are not yet in this market (at scale).

ETHUSD

ETHBTC

ETHUSD and ETHBTC are also holding up fairly well, although as we said last week, it’s a risky bet betting against the king right now. 

Stay safe out there.

Jon de Wet, CIO

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Spot Desk

Flows observed on the desk this week painted a clear picture of continued market concentration, with activity centred on BTC and stablecoins. Altcoin interest was sharply focused on a few high-conviction names. AAVE drew attention as a battle-tested DeFi name, while SUI continues to hold its status as the standout L1 trade of 2025. Most notably, HyperLiquid (HYPE) – the new kid on the block at the desk – attracted significant accumulation, solidifying its position as the emerging titan in the DEX perp space, now claiming over 80% of DeFi perp market share and nearing 10% of Binance’s total perp volume.

In the broader risk landscape, price action was muted as U.S. indices ticked up but remained capped within recent ranges, whilst Bitcoin cooled off following the excitement of fresh ATHs the week prior. BTC opened near highs at 109,004.20, drifted to 103,068.55, and closed at 105,642.9 – this came despite April’s U.S. Core PCE showing its slowest YoY increase since 2021 – a sign that persistent macro and political tensions continue to weigh on sentiment.

AUDUSD also stayed in familiar territory, trading within its April/May range. It opened at 0.64914, slipped to 0.64067, and closed at 0.64327, with traders now eyeing Wednesday’s Australian GDP print for fresh direction. With this, the desk saw consistent interest in USDT and USDC across AUD as well as other fiat pairs, with a slight skew back toward offramping.

Beyond price action, stablecoin momentum remains white-hot as institutional appetite ramps up. Stablecoin startup ‘Atticus’ neared a $2B valuation, while Circle reportedly targets $5B+ in its latest raise. Corporate treasury season also rolled on, with Trump Media announcing a $2.44B private placement to buy BTC, Metaplanet lifting its holdings to 8,888 BTC (~$930M), and even Paris Saint-Germain joining the fray. Meanwhile, SOL Strategies filing to raise up to $1B to expand Solana-focused investments took centre stage as the flag-bearer of continued institutional appetite in select altcoin  ecosystems.

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across major coins, altcoins, and memecoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.

Ben Mensah, Trading Analyst

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Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*

BTC and ETH basis rates edged lower over the week following a mild pullback in both assets. Despite the dip, basis levels remain relatively close to their three-month highs reached last week, suggesting a continued presence of leveraged long positioning. As of now, the 90-day BTC basis rate stands at 7.37%, while ETH’s 90-day basis is at 6.00%.

Trade Idea: BTC Discount Note

A moderately bullish strategy could involve buying BTC spot and selling upside calls expiring in March 2026. This structure allows participation in potential upside while generating yield from elevated option premiums.

Several factors support this setup:

• Rising Global Liquidity: Expanding M2 money supply in key economies could continue to support risk assets like BTC over the coming quarters.
  
• Technical Support: Bitcoin has held firm above the $100K level, signaling strong demand and reinforcing a constructive medium-term outlook.
  
• Healthy Pullback: The recent dip appears to be a mild correction, with price stabilizing just above support. This is potentially a favorable entry point for a covered call approach.
  

By selling calls against the BTC position, investors can monetize implied volatility and enhance returns in a scenario where BTC grinds higher but remains below the strike by March next year.

OVERVIEW

Term: 9-Months

The structure has a binary payout outcome depending on the price of BTC observed at expiry. Payout for this options strategy depends on the price of BTC at expiry with reference to the Strike Level – the two scenarios are:

Expiry Price above Strike Price (130k):

• Maximum return of 38.89% – received in USD.

Expiry Price below Strike Price: 

• 10% discounted purchase price at current levels into the BTC token – received in Spot.

RISK PROFILE

• Maximum loss for this product is the initial investment amount.
• May suit investors with a stable to moderately bullish view on  BTC.
• May not suit investors who think a major bull run in BTC is likely before expiry.
• May not suit investors who think BTC will fall significantly before expiry.
  

Hit the desk up for all your derivatives needs.

Austin Sacks, Derivatives Analyst

What to Watch

Markets will grapple with a heavy macro and central bank slate this week, featuring key rate decisions from the ECB, BoC and RBI, plus US labour data and Aussie GDP. With global growth risks in focus and inflation cooling, dovish pivots are increasingly likely especially from the ECB. Earnings remain light but watch for updates from Broadcom and Crowdstrike.

Monday, 2 June | ISM Manufacturing (US)
ISM Manufacturing is expected to hold at 48.7, though S&P’s flash print showed improvement to 52.3 on stronger new orders. That said, rising input costs and inventory builds point to tariff-related distortions. Market will be watching for confirmation of supply-side pressure amid weak export demand.

Tuesday, 3 June | RBA Minutes, Swiss CPI, Eurozone Flash CPI
RBA minutes may offer clarity on the board’s debate between a 25 or 50bps cut. With Governor Bullock guiding dovish, markets expect two more cuts this year. Swiss CPI is likely to confirm June SNB easing, while Eurozone CPI is seen easing to 2.0%. The inflation read won’t shift Thursday’s ECB cut, but could shape the path beyond.

Wednesday, 4 June | BoC Decision, Australian GDP, ISM Services (US)
BoC is expected to hold after strong GDP and sticky inflation, though Macklem’s tone will guide July pricing. Australia’s Q1 GDP likely prints flat, underscoring the RBA’s dovish shift. ISM Services is forecast to tick up, but export demand is softening and input prices rising, both driven by tariffs.

Friday, 6 June | US NFP, Canadian Jobs, RBI Decision
NFP expected at +130k, down from April’s 177k, with soft claims and wages pointing to a cooling labour market. The Fed’s trade-off between sticky inflation and rising joblessness is getting sharper. Canada’s jobs read will guide BoC expectations into July, while the RBI is likely to cut another 25bps as inflation softens and trade risks mount.

Emir Ibrahim, Analyst 

* Index used:

Bitcoin	Ethereum	Gold	Equities	High Yield Corporate Bonds	Commodities	Treasury Yields
BTC	ETH	PAXG	S&P 500, ASX 200, VT	HYG	SPGSCI	U.S. 10Y

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