Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 18th August 2025

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This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

• Bitcoin ETFs post $195.6M in outflows, while Ethereum ETFs notch $2.9B in inflows. 
• Federal Reserve shutters its crypto bank supervision program amid regulatory pullback.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent rules out new bitcoin purchases for Trump’s strategic reserve but confirms seized assets will be held.
• South Korea to submit stablecoin regulation bill in October, covering issuance, collateral, and risk management.
• SEC delays decisions on Solana ETF proposals from Bitwise and 21Shares until October.

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Technicals & Macro

Markets

Source: TradingView

It was quite the roller coaster last week in crypto. Markets were hit with the one-two punch; first a cooling CPI that encouraged dovish bets, then a hot PPI that quickly tempered expectations.

On Tuesday, headline CPI printed at 2.7% y/y vs 2.8% expected, with core holding at 3.1%. The softer headline release reinforced expectations for a September 25bps cut, leaving most participants positioned for the Fed to finally start its easing cycle. Futures still pricing ~60bps of cuts for 2025, holding the Fed’s floor of 3% in 2026, even as labour market softness builds. Equities took it in stride, stretching to fresh highs, while geopolitics leaned in to support – a 90 day tariff extension with China and easing Ukraine tensions lowered tail risks.

By Friday, however, the optimism was tested. PPI surprised – sharply higher at +0.9% m/m (against consensus of +0.2%), with services leading the charge. The release pushed 2Y yields 6bps higher, firmed the dollar, and took the shine off gold. Most importantly, it stripped away chatter of a 50bp September cut, leaving the market settled on a 25bp move (92% odds). The next major cue is Jackson Hole this Friday, with Powell expected to address Fed independence and frame the September path. Macro is clearly back in the sentiment seat.

Crypto mirrored the swings. BTC eased off from $124k highs, pulling back to ~$117k before stabilising, with skew leaning to puts and vols softening. Though the broader uptrend remains intact. Notably corporate adoption continues to underpin sentiment, from payments integration to balance sheet allocation, providing real money flows and use-cases.

Ethereum continues its strength

ETH, by contrast, extended its outperformance. The rally through $4.5k (+5.8% w/w) keeps the $5k breakout zone firmly in view, a level that would open new ATH territory. Structurally, ETH remains buoyed by tighter float dynamics, with staking, and the prospect of ETH staking ETFs, reducing tradeable supply. Options markets reflect that asymmetry; implied and realized vols have converged, VRP is compressed and dealer gamma clustered around $4.5k, suggesting consolidation until catalysts clear.

BTC Dominance grinding lower

Alts are starting to stir – SOL added ~6% w/w to $192, riding the L1 rotation as BTC dominance slipped from 63% to 59%. Again, if ETH and top-10 coin by market cap momentum holds as BTC dominance tapers, there’ll be more room for further catch up across quality names across the risk curve.

All eyes now turn to Jackson Hole on Friday, then NVDA earnings next Wednesday. Both key event risks that could dictate whether crypto reeks higher or holds base into September. Will we see it beat the odds?

Stay safe out there! 

Emir Ibrahim, Analyst

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Spot Desk

Flows on the desk this week reflected continued depth across both majors and alts. HYPE once again featured as a standout with strong two-way interest, while ALGO, NEAR, and XRP also drew consistent client activity. Stablecoin fiat pairs (USDT/C across AUD, USD, and EUR) remained heavily traded, with significant demand in both directions; meanwhile, AUDD activity also sustained strong levels, with the desk observing healthy flows as traders increasingly look to local stablecoin rails in addition to US dollar-denominated stables.

On the macro front, the Australian dollar (AUD) endured a choppy week. Opening at 0.6520, the currency briefly climbed to 0.6524 before sliding sharply to contained lows of 0.6482, ultimately closing nearly flat at 0.6508. The headline driver was the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 25bps rate cut to 3.6% at its August meeting – in line with expectations and bringing borrowing costs to their lowest since April 2023.

This pattern was mirrored amongst global risk and crypto. Bitcoin opened at 119,294 and surged to a fresh all-time high of 124,474 – a celebration we seem to be having quite often lately – before markets were rocked by a shock U.S. Producer Price Index print. The record $47B in open interest across altcoins was tested here with the surprise inflation spike triggering more than $1B in liquidations, including $782M in longs, sending BTC down to 116,803.99 before closing the week at 117,405 to end the week relatively flat on  despite significant intra-week volatility.

Ethereum stole the show once again this week, however, rallying from a weekly open of 4,250.58 to flirt with new ATHs at a high of 4,788.00 for the week. Momentum was supercharged by record ETF flows – with U.S. ETFs logging a record $1.02B of net inflows on Monday, quickly followed by $729.1M on Wednesday to mark the second-largest day since launch. Combined with the acceleration of corporate treasury demand – headlined by Tom Lee’s BitMine Immersion (BMNR) disclosed holdings of over 1.15M ETH (~$4.9B), making it the largest single crypto treasury globally. They say imitation is the highest form of flattery, and we’re seeing that as the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) company space continues to heat up – with a number of  copycats (BMNR, SBET, TAO, DFDV and more) levered to varying degrees looking to replicate the success of Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) across a number of different altcoins as the race for tokens charges on!

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across major coins, altcoins, and memecoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.

Ben Mensah, OTC Trader

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Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*

BTC and ETH basis rates pulled back over the past week to 6.61% and 4.58%, respectively, after reaching three-month highs during last week’s rally.

Trade Idea:

Buy 1 Year ETHBTC 0.05 strike Binary Call @ 20%

Pays out 1 if ETHBTC ≥ 0.05 by expiry (5x return)
Implied probability: 20%.
Thesis:
Ethereum (ETH) is showing increasing strength relative to Bitcoin (BTC). We attribute the following inputs as being the significant drivers of ETH outperformance: 

• Growing institutional interest in ETH, with corporate treasuries anecdotally reporting allocations into ETH (i.e. Sharplink Gaming, Bitmine and more).  
• Anticipation of ETH ETF inflows (following on from the success of the BTC ETF; as well as the potential approval for staking of ETH ETFs).  The combination of these factors, reviving the ETH “tech platform” narrative.
• The underlying price of BTC has most recently stalled below the all-time high (~$123k) – technically building this level as a major resistance level. Further, Bitcoin Dominance is fading – has fallen from a high of 66% in June to 59.8% currently.

This sets up a relative value opportunity on ETHBTC.

Chart: ETH/BTC showing heavy momentum after rebound from April lows

Trade: Buy 1 Year ETHBTC 0.05 strike Binary Call

This trade allows someone to express a view on ETH outperformance without taking on broad market beta, we prefer European-style ETH/BTC binary call options. This structure offers targeted exposure to relative strength in ETH over BTC, while mitigating noise from intraday volatility and broader risk-off moves.

Why Binaries?

• Simple payoff: Binaries offer a win or lose structure based on ETHBTC expiring above a level at expiry.
• Binaries provide a clear expression of outcomes around key levels which can be specifically chosen.

ETHBTC Historical Context:

• ETHBTC has traded above 0.08 in past bull cycles.
• 0.05 = ~50% rally from here but still far below prior highs.
• Historically, ETH outperforms BTC in late bull stages due to:
  • More appetite for trades that are higher up the risk curve.
    Increased altcoin beta spillover.

ETHBTC Spot Ref: 0.0355

1 Year ETHBTC 0.05 Binary Call Offered @ 20%:

• Historical mean reversion suggests this is a realistic upside, especially in ETH-led rallies. Pays out 1 if ETHBTC ≥ 0.05 by expiry. Implied probability: 20%.

Risk Considerations:

• If BTC breaks ATH and ETH fails to follow, ETHBTC may stay suppressed.
• Weak ETF inflows.
• Broader crypto risk-off = drags both.

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What to Watch

MON: Norwegian CPI (Jul), Japanese Mountain Day Holiday

TUE: US-China truce deadline (likely to be extended), RBA Announcement (Aug), UK Jobs Report (Jun), German ZEW Survey (Aug), US CPI (Jul), EIA STEO, OPEC MOMR

WED: German Final CPI (Jul), Spanish Final CPI (Jul)

THU: Norges Bank Announcement, Australian Jobs Report (Jul), UK GDP (Jun/Q2), Swedish CPIF (Jul), EZ Flash GDP (Q2) and Employment (Q2), US PPI (Jul)

FRI: Japanese GDP (Q2), Chinese Activity Data (Jul), US Retail Sales (Jul), US University of Michigan Prelim (Aug)

* Index used:

Bitcoin	Ethereum	Gold	Equities	High Yield Corporate Bonds	Commodities	Treasury Yields
BTC	ETH	PAXG	S&P 500, ASX 200, VT	HYG	SPGSCI	U.S. 10Y

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