Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 16 February 2026

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This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

• Coinbase reports Q4 loss on crypto revaluations and lowered trading revenues; COIN shares rise post-earnings release
• Binance completes the conversion of its US$1bn SAFU fund into Bitcoin (BTC), bringing total holdings to 15,000 BTC
• Grayscale files with the SEC to convert its AAVE Trust into an exchange-traded fund
• Bitcoin trades rangebound after consecutive weeks of selling; absorbing US$360m in weekly outflows
• U.S. non-farm payrolls printed hotter-than-expected 130,000 new jobs in January; U.S. CPI inflation cools to lower-than-expected 2.4%

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Technicals & Macro

Markets

The macro tape last week stayed strangely constructive for duration. Despite a strong US jobs & CPI print, bonds rallied, which tells you the market is still anchored to the view that there is no credible path back to hikes. The narrative doing the rounds in markets is that AI will cause disinflation. If that line sticks, it could keep term premia pinned – supporting the “lower rates, higher bond prices” trade even when the data looks fine.

Source: TradingView

At the same time, the rotation theme keeps grinding, and it is becoming more explicit. Investors are effectively selling long duration “digital stuff” and rotating into “real stuff” and cashflow.. You can see it in the tape. Software continues to bleed while energy has ripped higher, and the IGV (plus BTC) versus XLE spread has started to look like the cleanest expression of that shift. Safe havens were not a clean hideout either. Gold and silver both buckled as the market seems determined to fade every crowded 2026 consensus trade. The message is less risk-off panic and more active rejection of positioning that got too popular.

Source: CNBC.com (JP30Y Bond)

Japan was the other quiet stabiliser. Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory removed a large chunk of policy uncertainty, and the counterintuitive response was the right one. JGBs rallied, the yen firmed, and the “Buy Japan” trade picked up as investors got comfortable stepping back into higher yields with a clearer political runaway. That stability bled into global rates markets and reinforced the bid in USTs.

In equities, the mega tech-heavy NASDAQ is showing a spooky double top formatting with decelerating momentum. The index has been consolidating for five months and trading exactly where it was last September. The S&P 500 has held up better, making new marginal highs at 7,002 this year.

Source: Gartner, Goldman Sachs Research

The AI narrative is also shifting into that late-cycle phase where the story starts eating itself. AI optimism is being recast as AI fear, especially in software where the market is beginning to price a real regime change. The “SaaS-pocalypse” angle is simple. If agents can do what whole teams used to do, then the classic per-seat model loses pricing power. It is not just about negotiating cheaper seats, it is about removing seats. The Claude (Anthropic) Cowork plugin headlines put that risk front and centre and the market is reacting accordingly. This is why software has been treated like it is guilty until proven innocent, even when some of the selling is clearly indiscriminate.

Software stress is also starting to bleed into private markets. For years, private credit lenders like Blue Owl and Ares Management were happy to finance SaaS businesses on the assumption subscription revenue was sticky and predictable. Now, with growth slowing and a maturity wall approaching, those same books are getting marked down and risk is being repriced across both private equity and private credit. The other piece that matters is contagion. In a de-grossing tape, software and BTC moving together is not a coincidence. If you assume a chunk of VC and growth capital is levered across both software and crypto, then margin calls and cross-liquidations are a clean explanation for why they have sold in lockstep.

Source: Aimee Picchi, Principal Asset Management, U.S. Census, Visa

The next four weeks are the real test. The ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ tax refunds begin on February 15, which should be a meaningful liquidity impulse for the marginal buyer. If equities cannot bounce with that extra cash hitting retail accounts, that could be a loud signal for the rest of H1. I am not married to a view, but I am watching this window closely because it will tell us whether this is just a rotation and positioning washout, or the start of something more structural.

Follow the participation, not the price

The main takeaway from the latest round of crypto-linked equity prints is that this is still a participation-lite market. Prices can bounce and vol can spike, but broad retail engagement is not firing the way it does in a true risk-on regime. That keeps the tape more two-sided, more headline sensitive and more prone to fades.

Source: X.com (The Earnings Correspondent @earnings_guy)

Coinbase ($COIN) earnings last week is the cleanest cycle read-through. When consumer transaction revenue is soft, it usually means the marginal buyer is not showing up aggressively. You can still have institutional and ETF plumbing doing volume, but it more so stabilizes markets more than it ignites them. The second-order effect matters too. After a drawdown, assets per account materially compressed and activity tends to stay weak for longer than spot prices suggest, so earnings downgrades typically lag the initial move.

Source: Artemis Research

Robinhood ($HOOD) reinforces the same point through a pure retail lens. Crypto activity on the core app has slowed materially, while broader platforms held up through options, equities, net interest and subscriptions. The fact that acquisition-related exchange volumes helped cushion the headline number is telling. It points to a mix shift toward more international and institutional-style flows while U.S. retail remains selective.

Source: Artemis Research

On the institutional side, results and commentary from major trading and market-making desks read similarly. Client transaction activity has softened, risk limits are being tightened and less balance sheet elasticity. Though we don’t think it implies stress, it just means liquidity provision becomes more selective, and rallies in higher beta tokens can struggle to get a clean follow through when desks are running tighter risk. 

Net for markets, the rails are working and institutions are still building, but the broad risk impulse remains muted. That lines up with the macro rotation we are seeing in equities. Zerocap remains to have a constructive view on crypto markets in 2026. Until retail re-engages, crypto can base and grind, but rallies are more likely to be tactical and positioning-driven than the start of a smooth trend higher. The tell to watch is not price first, it is participation. When it flips, it shows up in consumer transaction revenue, app engagement, and sustained two-way volumes.

Emir Ibrahim, Analyst

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Spot Desk

The digital asset complex began to stabilise this week following consecutive weeks of intense deleveraging, as liquidity conditions in the space improved and we saw pockets of altcoin outperformance not seen since last year’s October 10 sell-off. On-desk, client flows signaled a tentative reignition in risk appetite; while the Fear and Greed Index has spent weeks in “Extreme Fear,” the outsized selling in majors (BTC/ETH) seen in prior weeks subsided to a more balanced skew as they continue to dominate volumes. Meanwhile, single-sided interest in SOL and XRP buying signalled a potential floor forming in sentiment, as trading interest in these assets on the desk tracked the relative strength of their respective ETF products.

Conversely, we continued to observe tactical derisking in smaller altcoin names such as Aerodrome (AERO), FLuid (FLUID), and Euler (EUL) as clients consolidated primarily into stablecoin crosses. The “debasement trade” remains a core thematic in flows; servicing consistent PAXG buying as well as block trades against BTC as gold continues its central role in global portfolios. Beyond USDT/USDC trading against fiat crosses (AUD/USD/NZD/EUR) where we continue to see two-way flow in size; demand for AUDD remains robust while the desk is also seeing a pickup in EURC interest as U.S. dollar volatility continues to expand.

A mixed week for risk as crypto and equity markets alike saw consolidation and largely rangebound trade in the wake of intense selling. Bitcoin (BTC) absorbed $360M in net outflows from U.S. spot ETFs with resilience, opening at $70,330 and sliding to a weekly low of $65,118 before partially rallying back in the weekend session to ultimately close lower at $68,832. Ethereum (ETH) followed a similar path, opening at $2,089 and closing marginally down for the week at $1,966 following a mirrored weekend bounce. These struggles in broader risk coincide with valuation reratings across the AI sector, where heavyweights like Alphabet and AMD face pressure as investors’ concerns continue to focus on future monetisation and value capture versus extreme capex projections.

Onshore, the AUD/USD pair remains a standout of structural strength, rallying to new local highs at 0.7147 before spending the rest of the week rangebound between that level and 0.7043. The primary driver here remains the widening yield differential as the RBA takes a hawkish stance on employment and inflation. This policy divergence – a hawkish local board versus global peers managing market volatility and employment/inflation trade-offs – continues to underpin the Aussie’s outperformance against other major currencies. While last week’s rescheduled Non-Farm Payrolls cooled hopes for imminent U.S. rate cuts as jobs growth for January came in hotter-than-expected, Friday’s lower-than-expected U.S. CPI print of 2.4% helped calm fears of a price re-acceleration and underpins the case for cuts later into the year. This week, traders look towards Tuesday’s release of RBA meeting minutes and Thursday’s Australian employment data to provide additional detail on the RBA’s intention to maintain a hawkish stance through the second quarter, while U.S. personal income and spending numbers on Friday provide the next best look at the health and resilience of the U.S consumer.

In sector news, Coinbase reported a Q4 net loss of $667 million, largely driven by a non-cash mark-to-market revaluation of its crypto holdings and strategic investments like Circle. Despite a 20% drop in revenue due to lower retail activity, analysts were encouraged by the diversification in revenue sources and growth in derivatives volume, particularly following the Deribit acquisition. Meanwhile, Binance has officially completed its $1 billion transition of the SAFU fund into Bitcoin. The exchange confirmed the final purchase of 4,545 BTC this week, completed within the promised 30-day window to bring its total reserve to 15,000 BTC.

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions and competitive pricing across majors, stablecoins, and altcoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.

Ben Mensah, Trading Analyst

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Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY

The inversion between BTC and ETH’s basis rates observed last week has been reversed. BTC’s basis rate is now trading at 3.50% and ETH’s is at 3.03%.

Bitcoin ATM implied volatility has stabilized for the time being, maintaining a 3.5-point premium over the baseline levels seen earlier this year. This persistent elevation reflects a market on high alert, with participants continuing to price in a sustained layer of caution despite the recent price consolidation.

Source: Velodata

The skew on BTC options contracts is still trading at an elevated level towards Puts.

This Week’s Trade Idea – BTC Yield Entry Notes

Given the skew towards puts and the fact that basis rates are at yearly lows, we see value in Yield Entry Notes at the moment – a way to take advantage of the heightened put prices. We like BTC Yield Entry Notes with strike prices below 60k.

Yield Entry Note sample terms:

For a 1-month BTC Yield Entry Note with 60k Strike Price one can generate 1.5% Yield (~18% annualised). There are two possible outcomes at expiry:

• BTC expires above 60k: investment paid back in cash + earns 1.5% yield (paid in cash).
• BTC expires below 60k: investment used to buy BTC at 60k + earns 1.5% yield (paid in BTC).

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What to Watch

TUE: RBA Meeting Minutes, GB Unemployment Rate

WED: JP Balance of Trade, GB Inflation Rate YoY, US FOMC Minutes

THU: AU Employment Change, AU Unemployment Rate

FRI: JP Inflation Rate YoY, US Core PCE Price Index, US GDP Growth Rate, US Personal Income MoM, US Personal Spending MoM

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Contact Us

Zerocap is a market-leading digital asset firm, providing trading, liquidity and custody to forward-thinking institutions and investors globally. To learn more, contact the team at [email protected]

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