Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 3rd November 2025

Zerocap is a market-leading digital asset firm, providing trading, liquidity and custody to forward-thinking institutions and investors globally. To learn more, contact the team at [email protected]

This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

• ASIC said it now considers stablecoins, wrapped tokens, tokenized securities, and crypto wallets as financial products and companies will need a license to offer these
• DBS and Goldman Sachs said they completed the first OTC crypto asset options trade between banks in a trade involving cash-settled BTC and ETH options.
• Tether reported it has generated over $10b in profits for the year through Q3
• Mastercard in late stage talks to acquire crypto and stablecoin infrastructure company Zerohash for between $1.5b and $2b
• Consensys is reportedly planning to go public and has engaged Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to advise

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Technicals & Macro

Markets

Source: Polymarket

The Federal Reserve delivered a 25bp rate cut last week, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75-4.00%. The decision was widely expected; however, Chair Powell’s accompanying statement carried a distinctly hawkish tone, effectively tempering expectations for another reduction in December. Futures markets now assign a 68% probability for a further 25bp move, down from nearly 100% just days prior.

The divergence within the Committee was also notable – two dissenters reflected a growing split between those prioritising inflation control and those concerned with labour market fragility. Powell acknowledged the data gap created by the ongoing government shutdown, signalling a cautious approach until further clarity emerges.

Macro implications

Equity markets absorbed the outcome with mixed performance. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both advanced modestly, though breadth remains narrow with large-cap technology continuing to dominate. NVIDIA briefly became the first company to exceed a USD 5 trillion market capitalisation, highlighting the ongoing concentration risk within US equities.

On the geopolitical front, President Trump’s meeting with President Xi in Seoul produced a one–year trade truce. While the measures were incremental, they provided relief to global risk sentiment after a volatile month. The Nikkei 225 responded by extending its record run, now posting its strong monthly performance since 1994. 

Across Europe, the ECB maintained rates for a third consecutive meeting, as inflation hovered near the 2% target. Eurozone GDP expanded 0.2% in Q3, with Lagarde reiterating a data-dependent stance. Meanwhile, the BoJ also held policy steady but hinted that the likelihood of a rate hike “is increasing.” The yen nonetheless weakened to 154 per dollar, reflecting lingering scepticism over the central bank’s tightening intentions.

Gold entered correction territory, down over 10% from recent highs above USD 4,000/oz, as risk appetite rotated into equities. US 10-year yields drifted higher to 4.08%, and the DXY strengthened modestly to 104.2. Overall, macro conditions remain balanced between cautious optimism and residual volatility.

In Digital Assets

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase following the late-October liquidation event, trading within a narrow USD 107-110k range. Spot ETF flows continue to show net outflows, while broader leverage volumes remain subdued. The market’s muted response to the Fed decision underscores the current equilibrium between policy expectations and risk sentiment.

Elsewhere, altcoins outperformed Bitcoin in relative terms, though activity was largely narrative-driven. A social media post from Binance founder CZ spurred a sharp rally in ASTER (+30%), while Vitalik’s comments on privacy technologies catalysed renewed interest in ZK projects. Despite the short term enthusiasm, these moves appear speculative rather than structural.

From a broader lens, Bitcoin’s consolidation remains constructive. Historical data shows November as the strongest month for BTC performance, averaging above 40% returns across the past decade. With macro uncertainty easing and risk sentiment gradually improving, positioning remains favourable for a continuation of the longer-term uptrend into year-end.

Emir Ibrahim, Analyst

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Spot Desk

Crypto spot markets softened last week as sentiment turned risk-off following Thursday’s FOMC meeting. BTC topped at 116.4k before closing at 110,540 BTC/USDT, while ETH and SOL followed a similar trajectory paving the way for broader cooling in risk appetite across majors.

USDC saw a notable return in activity, with strong trading interest primarily concentrated in USDC/USD pairs. Flow was predominately sell side with the market still structurally pricing a discount on buy side transactions. AUDD activity remained one sided as clients consistently sold AUDD in favor of same day fiat and crypto settlement. USDT/USD flow stayed skewed on the bid, reflecting steady selling interest as traders rotate out of Tether into USD.

BTC remained actively traded in both directions, with healthy two-way interest throughout the week. ETH volume was lighter but mixed, showing a modest bias towards the buy side. Solana drew attention with a few larger block buy orders, signaling selective accumulation amid broader market weakness. Across the alts, flows were balanced – clients were buyers of HYPE, PEAQ and VIRTUAL, while selling activity was observed in MPLX, EUL and LDO, consistent with tactical rotation rather than directional conviction.

FX flows were concentrated in USD and AUD pairings, while activity in CAD, NZD and EUR remained consistent with prior weekly trends. USDT/AUD trading was largely even, though a slight lean towards the sell side emerged midweek. Thursday’s hot Australian data introduced volatility into the local market, offering traders opportunities to capture short term price swings across both crypto and fiat pairs.

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across majors, stablecoins, and altcoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.

Oliver Davis, OTC Trader

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Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*

BTC and ETH basis rates have continued their general move lower.  This has been the broad theme for the last 30 days.  While a disconnection between BTC, ETH and US equities has formed over this point in time, the slow decline in funding rate expectation seems to be more aligned to a technical component of credit.  That is the FOMC adjusting lower their economic interest rate hurdle, at their October meeting.  For the time being, the interest rate transmission mechanism appears to be working as expected.  BTC’s 90 day basis rate is sitting just over 5% while ETH has moved much closer to 4%. 

From here, we expect future underlying price expectations to ultimately drive funding direction.   

Short term interest rate futures continue to price a circa 70% chance of a 25bp reduction to the US Federal Funds rate for December.  If delivered, it is expected that cryptocurrencies will begin to trend more broadly with global equities.

The desk continues to  like a ‘Modified Risk Reversal’ trading strategy – buying calls financed by selling put spreads for zero initial premium.

Zerocap can offer this structured on ETH:

• Underlying: ETH
• Call Strike: 105%
• Put Spread Strikes: 98%/78%
• Expiry: 26 Sep 2025
• Initial Premium: 0%

Selling put spreads to fund this position is a cost effective way to express a bullish view on one more rate cut before the end of the year.. The downside is capped to the width of the put spread strikes (20% in above example), but investors retain full (uncapped) upside if price action moves higher.

Risk Considerations:

Short-term downside: The 98%/78% means that the up to 20% of investment can be lost if price falls to 78% or lower.

Upside limited below 105%: The investment starts to profit only after a 5% gain in the underlying.

Macro or regulatory shocks: Unexpected Fed actions, inflation surprises, or adverse crypto regulation could create rapid price swings.

Why the Structure Makes Sense Now:

Cost-efficient upside: Selling the put spread finances the 105% call, allowing exposure to ETH gains with minimal upfront cost.

Options Skew has been shifting back towards puts in recent sell-off after ATHs.

Macro support: Fed cut more than 50% priced in, weakening USD, and strong institutional demand provide a favorable environment for ETH upside.

Risk-defined approach: Partial downside protection (98%/78% put spread) limits losses while enabling participation in a potential altcoin rally.

Market timing: ETH/BTC strength, rising altcoin volumes, and climbing institutional allocations suggest near-term upside potential for ETH and other alts, making a call-funded structure attractive.

Hit the derivs desk for pricing!

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What to Watch

MON: Japan Culture Day Holiday; Swiss CPI (Oct), EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI (Oct), US ISM Manufacturing PMI(Oct), Construction Spending (Sep)

TUE: RBA Announcement & SoMP, French Assembly Budget (PLF/Revenue) Vote; Canadian Trade Balance (Sep), New Zealand Unemployment (Q3)

WED: US Supreme Court tariff hearing, Riksbank Announcement, BCB Announcement; German Industrial Orders (Sep), EZ, UK & US Composite & Services Final PMIs (Oct), EZ Producer Prices (Sep), US MBA, ADP (Oct), ISM Services PMI (Oct)

THU: BoE Announcement and MPR, Norges Bank Announcement; German Industrial Output (Sep), Swedish CPIF Flash (Oct), US Challenger Layoffs (Oct)

FRI: German Trade Balance (Sep), Canadian Jobs Report (Oct), US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Nov), Chinese Trade Balance (Oct).

* Index used:

Bitcoin	Ethereum	Gold	Equities	High Yield Corporate Bonds	Commodities	Treasury Yields
BTC	ETH	PAXG	S&P 500, ASX 200, VT	HYG	SPGSCI	U.S. 10Y

Contact Us

Zerocap is a market-leading digital asset firm, providing trading, liquidity and custody to forward-thinking institutions and investors globally. To learn more, contact the team at [email protected]

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