25 Mar, 24

Weekly Crypto Market Wrap, 25th March 2024



Download the PDF

Zerocap provides digital asset liquidity and digital asset custodial services to forward-thinking investors and institutions globally. For frictionless access to digital assets with industry-leading security, contact our team at [email protected] or visit our website www.zerocap.com

This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in review



Wild week on macro expectation shifts. The market continued to deleverage leading up to the FOMC meeting last Wed 20th March. The Fed came out plotting three rate cuts this year, a dovish change from the two cuts expected. Bonds higher, stocks higher, crypto higher was the reaction – once again putting pressure on the old risk-parity and 60/40 bond/stocks trade. 

This has led to a nice double false break of the 65,000 level and 20-day EMA, and we are moving higher once again. We’ve also had some fairly pivotal bank predictions coming out over the past week – including Standard Chartered at 150K USD by the end of 2024 and Cathie Wood calling for a $75 Trillion market cap in Bitcoin by 2030. 

Sentiment is once again on the up, and is reflected in the CME basis pushing up towards 15%. Given we’ve seen more balanced flows over the past fortnight, we expect the basis to rise in the CME in the absence of ETF spot hedging. We think the books are starting to look more balanced, albeit with some expected volatility in the lead-up to the BTC halving.

Key levels
50,000 / 65,000 / 69,000 / 70,000 / 80,000

Spot desk 

Fiat to crypto onramps strong

The desk saw a skew towards onramps as AUD strengthened throughout the week, alongside real money USD bidding of BTC and Alts. ETH was the only asset we really saw liquidations on, due to the expected Ethereum ETF delay. We may not even get a look this year according to recent newsflow, but do keep an eye on Blackrock as they have a way of moving markets.

Alts bid across various themes

On the alts side, there was a wider range of tokens being traded on the desk, where we saw interest in DOT, FIL, OP, SSV, ORDI and many others. OM was of particular interest where we saw two-way flow as it rallied ~130% on an announcement that it was launching its ‘Hongbai’ test network, and applying for financial licences in Hong Kong and the UAE.

FOMC drama

As mentioned, the past week took BTC for a ride. We first witnessed it decline sharply prior to the FOMC meeting, front-running an expected negative event. This led to some great entry points for some of our clients who hit the spot desk up with limit buy orders for BTC and ETH, trying to capture the dip that was very much hoped for by those who might have missed the opportunity on the way up. We then witnessed a huge rebound rally on the back of the Fed meeting as market uncertainty was reduced, as the Fed clearly outlined their three rate cuts for the year. Some great opportunities around event risk at the moment!

Derivatives desk

As the rally took a breather, futures basis/funding rates came slightly off the highs, but were elevated again post-FOMC. Given the basis looks like it could go either way we prefer parking spare cash in yield-generating perp strategies (long spot, short perp) to earn carry and wait for the next leg up. If spot takes off again, expect these to nudge 100% APY in high beta movers.

The desk can package any of these trades up into a Structured Product for investors.

Contact the derivatives team at [email protected] for more information.

What to Watch

  • Australia’s yearly CPI, on Tuesday.
  • US final quarter GDP and unemployment claims report, on Thursday.
  • FED Chair Powell speaks at Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, on Friday.

* Index used:

  Bitcoin    EthereumGoldEquities        High Yield Corporate Bonds      CommoditiesTreasury Yields
BTCETHPAXG        S&P 500, ASX 200, VT      HYG  SPGSCIU.S. 10Y

Zerocap Pty Ltd carries out regulated and unregulated activities.

Spot crypto-asset services and products offered by Zerocap are not regulated by ASIC. Zerocap Pty Ltd is registered with AUSTRAC as a DCE (digital currency exchange) service provider (DCE100635539-001).

Regulated services and products include structured products (derivatives) and funds (managed investment schemes) are available to Wholesale Clients only as per Sections 761GA and 708(10) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Sophisticated/Wholesale Client). To serve these products, Zerocap Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR: 001289130) of AFSL 340799

This material is intended solely for the information of the particular person to whom it was provided by Zerocap and should not be relied upon by any other person. The information contained in this material is general in nature and does not constitute advice, take into account financial objectives or situation of an investor; nor a recommendation to deal. . Any recipients of this material acknowledge and agree that they must conduct and have conducted their own due diligence investigation and have not relied upon any representations of Zerocap, its officers, employees, representatives or associates. Zerocap has not independently verified the information contained in this material. Zerocap assumes no responsibility for updating any information, views or opinions contained in this material or for correcting any error or omission which may become apparent after the material has been issued. Zerocap does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of advice or information which is contained in this material. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Zerocap and its officers, employees, representatives or associates do not accept any liability (whether arising in contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this material or for any resulting loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) suffered by the recipient of this material or any other person. This is a private communication and was not intended for public circulation or publication or for the use of any third party. This material must not be distributed or released in the United States. It may only be provided to persons who are outside the United States and are not acting for the account or benefit of, “US Persons” in connection with transactions that would be “offshore transactions” (as such terms are defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”)). This material does not, and is not intended to, constitute an offer or invitation in the United States, or in any other place or jurisdiction in which, or to any person to whom, it would not be lawful to make such an offer or invitation. If you are not the intended recipient of this material, please notify Zerocap immediately and destroy all copies of this material, whether held in electronic or printed form or otherwise.

Disclosure of Interest: Zerocap, its officers, employees, representatives and associates within the meaning of Chapter 7 of the Corporations Act may receive commissions and management fees from transactions involving securities referred to in this material (which its representatives may directly share) and may from time to time hold interests in the assets referred to in this material.  Investors should consider this material as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Like this article? Share
Latest Insights

25 Mar, 24

Ethereum Smart Contracts: How They Changed Crypto

Ethereum, launched in 2015, revolutionized the digital world by introducing “smart contracts,” self-executing contracts with the terms of the agreement directly written into code. This

25 Mar, 24

Main Crypto Events in the World

The world of cryptocurrencies is dynamic and ever-evolving, with numerous conferences and events held globally to foster innovation, collaboration, and networking among crypto enthusiasts. Here’s

25 Mar, 24

What is Ethena Finance?

Ethena Finance (ENA/USDe) is emerging as a notable player in the cryptocurrency and decentralized finance (DeFi) sectors. Powered by its proprietary stablecoin, USDe, Ethena aims

Receive Our Insights

Subscribe to receive our publications in newsletter format — the best way to stay informed about crypto asset market trends and topics.

Want to see how bitcoin and other digital assets fit into your portfolio?

Contact Us
Ready to sign up?
Create an Account