Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 21st July 2025

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This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

• The U.S. passed the GENIUS Act, its first comprehensive stablecoin law, shifting oversight to the Treasury and requiring full reserves
• SharpLink Gaming surpassed the Ethereum Foundation as the largest corporate holder of ETH
• President Trump announced a pro-crypto policy agenda, including plans to allow 401(k) retirement plans to invest in crypto 
• Crypto exchange Bullish filed for a U.S. IPO, signaling growing institutional confidence
• NFT markets experienced a major revival, with floor prices of top collections like CryptoPunks and Bored Apes surging as Ethereum and Solana reached multi-month highs.

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Technicals & Macro

BTCUSD

Source: TradingView

Party in the house.

We are back at highs, and notably ETH is on an absolute tear. We’ve had a big week of newsflow – the big crypto bill passed in the US, leaving the door open to a huge amount of industry support. The GENIUS Act makes the path easier for banks and other entities to issue and transact in digital tokens, and has the potential to drive a huge wave of innovation out of the US, and of course, globally. Combine this with a suite of upcoming Treasury plays for publicly listed corporations, and you have the convergence of crypto and traditional finance worlds that so many have been advocating for. But not all – the original thesis of Bitcoin was around the disintermediation of banks, not the integration with banks, and I’m sure the anarchists from the early days would be questioning whether this is the right path. All of this said, I think we all agree that convergence is the fastest way to get crypto into the hands of the average person, and we are seeing the adoption curve run full-steam ahead right now.

The treasury plays are worth keeping a close eye on, particularly with the rise in now ETH based debit issuance in public markets. The more we see the likes of Strategy, Twenty-One Capital and BTSR succeed (BTC plays), the more we’ll see regional plays around the globe. Most recently, DigitalX here in Australia has announced their model to provide value through Bitcoin in public markets, and we expect these models to create convexity in the BTC price as it gains further traction.

BTCUSD has based at 118,000, and is currently looking to move higher in-step with US equity futures as the European session gets going this Monday.

Basis grinding higher

Futures basis moving higher – we are starting to see some healthy premiums return to the market. Given on-chain data is showing that spot liquidity is becoming more and more constrained, there could be increasing views and hedges taken in derivatives markets.

US 30Y bond yield still rocking at 5’s

Amongst all of these risk-on moves, we are still sitting on a 30Y yield that is close to 5%. The US risk premium in bond markets is still alive and well.

The Fed a hold for 30 July

No surprise the Fed is going to hold against the aforementioned backdrop.

Gold forming an ascending wedge

Gold holding strong, even with some dollar resurgence back towards its range low. We are seeing hybrid risk and scarcity flows in the market at the moment, and it’s a different kind of paradigm for Wall Street to comprehend.

ETHUSD on a moon mission

So many lessons in this chart. If I earned a dollar for every time an asset was considered dead, just before the mother of all rallies. Ethereum went live 10-years ago, but that is a lifetime in the crypto space. There is a significant structural advantage given its time in the market, and with larger flows moving in, ETH is a natural benefactor. We used to model the ‘perfect’ portfolio back in our Family Office days – and montecarlo analysis would normally land on a total portfolio allocation of 5% to 10%, divided into 70% BTC and 30% ETH. 

I’d say this isn’t such a bad bet.

ETHBTC

ETHBTC outta the range and searching for levels.

Stay safe out there!

Jon de Wet
CIO

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Spot Desk

Risk sentiment remained mixed this week as markets digested hotter-than-expected US PPI and retail sales prints, which temporarily pushed back rate cut expectations. Fed officials maintained a cautious tone, reiterating a data-dependent stance. Meanwhile, the Aussie jobs report surprised to the upside, lifting the AUD and stoking local rate hike chatter. Equities drifted with low conviction while crypto held steady, decoupling slightly from broader macro pressure.

On the desk, AUD flow picked up meaningfully this week, skewed heavily to the bid as demand for Aussie ramps into month-end. We continue to see strong offramping of stables into USD, with large clips in USDT and USDC crossing the desk. BTC flow was mixed, a wave of smaller clips bidding up BTC was offset by a handful of larger sells, keeping things relatively balanced. Some chunky sell orders came through in majors like SOL and BTC, while alt activity remained active with clients rotating into small-to-mid caps. On the alt side, we saw decent buy flow in SYRUP, AERO, AVAX, UNI, GRT, IOTA, and XRP, while sells were concentrated in ALGO, BNB, and ETH. As we continue building out multi-currency capabilities, it is worth flagging to clients that we can now support EUR and GBP. Please reach out to the desk for indicative quotes.

Alt season underway?

Source: CoinmarketCap

With altcoin season indexes crossing above 50 across major sources, the highest since last December, momentum is clearly building. Total ETH Perpetual Open Interest has surged from under $18B to over $28B in just a week. While retail may be chasing the rally, it’s increasingly institutions leading the charge, driven by structural tailwinds. 

A key catalyst is the GENIUS Act, signed into law last Friday, which introduces a clear regulatory framework for stablecoin issuance. ETH and L1s hosting stables, particularly SOL, XRP, and ADA, have drawn renewed interest, especially from Corporate Treasuries looking to build digital asset reserves. Think ETH becoming to them what BTC is to Strategy and Metaplanet. This narrative could accelerate further if the SEC greenlights staked spot ETH ETFs in the coming months, likely prompting rotation from spot BTC ETFs in pursuit of superior yield. Spot ETH ETF inflows already outpaced BTC’s for two consecutive days last week, a strong signal of BlackRock’s confidence in approval and the broader institutional shift toward ETH. Options markets echo this view, with ETH risk reversals bid for calls across tenors and large bullish structures trading.. BTC dominance has slipped from 64% to 60%, while ETH’s market share has risen from 9.7% to 11.6%. If this trend holds, the next leg of altseason may already be underway.

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across major coins, altcoins, and memecoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.

Emir Ibrahim, Analyst

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Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*

BTC and ETH basis rates have trickled up over the past week. BTC’s 90-day annualised basis now stands at 8%, while ETH’s has risen to 90-day annualised basis now stands at 8%, while ETH’s has risen to 6.82%. It will be interesting to watch whether this outperformance of ETH can close the BTC – ETH basis gap.

Trade Idea: Sell ETH Volatility if ETH reaches 4k
Thesis:
In the past we have seen ETH IV spike to 75+  after ETH has reached 4k. This has been a historically great level to sell volatility at

Trade: Sell 2-Month $5,000 ETH Calls

This trade seeks to capitalize on an implied volatility (IV) spike that is likely to occur if ETH breaks above the $4,000 level, a key psychological and technical threshold. By selling out-of-the-money (OTM) $5,000 calls with two months to expiry, ETH holders can monetize their position by collecting premium that equates to an annualized yield of ~20%, while maintaining upside exposure up to $5,000.

This strategy aligns with a moderately bullish view expecting ETH to grind higher but remain below its all-time high (~$4,900) in the near term. It also benefits from volatility sellers taking advantage of rich call pricing driven by breakout anticipation.

Austin Sacks, Derivatives Analyst

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What to Watch

Markets watch the Japanese Upper House election (Sun) where PM Ishiba’s LDP-Komeito coalition risks losing its majority. A weak result could prompt fiscal stimulus and stall BoJ tightening. JGB yields are already at post-2008 highs on reflation expectations.

PBoC LPR (Mon): No cut expected after strong Q2 GDP and industrial data. Policy pause likely following May’s sweeping easing.

ECB (Thu): No change expected; Lagarde likely to reaffirm “data-dependent” stance. Trade tensions with the US and a strong EUR weigh on growth/inflation outlook.

Flash PMIs (Thu): EZ, UK and US prints expected to show modest expansion. Focus on sentiment amid tariff risk and labour data.

CBRT (Thu): 250bps cut expected to 43.5% as inflation cools. But TRY volatility and political tension remain risks.

UK Retail Sales (Fri): Rebound expected after May’s sharp drop, but consumer caution lingers amid economic uncertainty.

Emir Ibrahim, Analyst

* Index used:

Bitcoin	Ethereum	Gold	Equities	High Yield Corporate Bonds	Commodities	Treasury Yields
BTC	ETH	PAXG	S&P 500, ASX 200, VT	HYG	SPGSCI	U.S. 10Y

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