1 Jul, 24

Weekly Crypto Market Wrap, 1st July 2024



Download the PDF

Zerocap provides digital asset liquidity and digital asset custodial services to forward-thinking investors and institutions globally. For frictionless access to digital assets with industry-leading security, contact our team at [email protected] or visit our website www.zerocap.com

This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

Technicals & Macro


Core PCE inflation provided a consensus figure that has formed a great-looking base in the range. Last week we had an inkling that this would be an outlier figure, which could lead to some further downside. That is not the case – with investors now looking for the Fed to cut and kick off the easing cycle by year-end. 

We are in a fairly efficient price zone at the moment, with two key levels to trade through if we continue higher – 66,000 (midpoint of current range) and 72,000 (range high). A break above sends us to all-time high territory, and a break below would look to fill the gap down to 53,000, but not before hitting the ascending inside trendline from late 2023. 

Source: Tradingview

Despite the immediate downside pressures – Mt Gox disbursements flooding the market with 140,000 BTC and ETF outflows (which seem to be leading short-term sentiment), the futures and options markets are telling a different story. The put/call ratio is slowly dropping off in the options market, and the futures’ basis is heading into bullish territory. If perpetual funding rates hop to elevated and hold, we’d expect movement back toward the top of the range in quick succession.

Keep an eye on NFPs this week – as the market will be looking at growth as the next easing indicator.

Key levels
53,000 / 57,000 / 60,000 / 66,000 / 72,000 / 73,130 (ATH!)


Ethereum is in a similar boat all around, and given the basis curve is rising, we’d argue that the market makers have probably built their long ETH positions in anticipation of the spot ETF launch in the US, and are sitting in a nice carry trade until investors start bidding through their brokerage platforms. Not too far off we don’t think, the S-1 forms are due for an amendment on July 08 which should give us some guidance on timing from the SEC.

Source: Tradingview

Key levels
3,150 / 3,350 / 3,700 / 4,000

Spot Desk

As the price of bitcoin slid below 60K for the first time since early May, touching 58.4K, it was quickly being bought up by investors to close out the week at 62.6K. With this, Bitcoin is up 7.75% from it’s weekly low, while ETH behaved similarly closing out the week +6.81% from its weekly low. USDT traded below parity all week, and AUD/USD trended higher, closing with a weekly gain of +0.81%.

We saw balanced flows on the desk across stables and majors, but noticed our clients continue to trade high volumes of alts, including PAXG, TRX, ILV, SOL, MATIC and TON. Clients were skewed towards buying ETH while we saw balanced flows for BTC.

Although the exact timeline of the Ether ETF remains unclear, the ETFs are expected to trade soon and we wouldn’t be surprised to see some pickup in trading of tokens within the Ethereum ecosystem. As mentioned, July 08 should be the guide, keep an eye on it!

Feel free to hit up the desk for quotes.

Derivatives desk

The Basis Rates have kicked back up, marking a potential change in market sentiment coming out of June. BTC and ETH Basis Rates both sit at around 12.5% (30-day annualised). 

Vol, on the other hand, looks relatively unchanged at the start of the month. We have been seeing a continuing downtrend in ATM IV since the highs in March this year.

If you believe that this downtrend will continue, it might be a good idea to look at trades that involve selling volatility, to capture the Yield Premiums. For those holding BTC and ETH, Yield Exit Notes are a good way to capture some of this premium, by selling some upside volatility on their spot holdings.

Hit the derivs desk for pricing!

What to Watch

  • Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at ECB Forum and US Jolts Job openings report, on Tuesday.
  • FOMC meeting minutes, on Wednesday.
  • UK’s parliamentary elections, on Thursday.
  • Canada and US unemployment rate (the big NFPs), on Friday.

* Index used:

  Bitcoin    EthereumGoldEquities        High Yield Corporate Bonds      CommoditiesTreasury Yields
BTCETHPAXG        S&P 500, ASX 200, VT      HYG  SPGSCIU.S. 10Y

Zerocap Pty Ltd carries out regulated and unregulated activities.

Spot crypto-asset services and products offered by Zerocap are not regulated by ASIC. Zerocap Pty Ltd is registered with AUSTRAC as a DCE (digital currency exchange) service provider (DCE100635539-001).

Regulated services and products include structured products (derivatives) and funds (managed investment schemes) are available to Wholesale Clients only as per Sections 761GA and 708(10) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Sophisticated/Wholesale Client). To serve these products, Zerocap Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR: 001289130) of AFSL 340799

This material is intended solely for the information of the particular person to whom it was provided by Zerocap and should not be relied upon by any other person. The information contained in this material is general in nature and does not constitute advice, take into account financial objectives or situation of an investor; nor a recommendation to deal. . Any recipients of this material acknowledge and agree that they must conduct and have conducted their own due diligence investigation and have not relied upon any representations of Zerocap, its officers, employees, representatives or associates. Zerocap has not independently verified the information contained in this material. Zerocap assumes no responsibility for updating any information, views or opinions contained in this material or for correcting any error or omission which may become apparent after the material has been issued. Zerocap does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of advice or information which is contained in this material. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Zerocap and its officers, employees, representatives or associates do not accept any liability (whether arising in contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this material or for any resulting loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) suffered by the recipient of this material or any other person. This is a private communication and was not intended for public circulation or publication or for the use of any third party. This material must not be distributed or released in the United States. It may only be provided to persons who are outside the United States and are not acting for the account or benefit of, “US Persons” in connection with transactions that would be “offshore transactions” (as such terms are defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”)). This material does not, and is not intended to, constitute an offer or invitation in the United States, or in any other place or jurisdiction in which, or to any person to whom, it would not be lawful to make such an offer or invitation. If you are not the intended recipient of this material, please notify Zerocap immediately and destroy all copies of this material, whether held in electronic or printed form or otherwise.

Disclosure of Interest: Zerocap, its officers, employees, representatives and associates within the meaning of Chapter 7 of the Corporations Act may receive commissions and management fees from transactions involving securities referred to in this material (which its representatives may directly share) and may from time to time hold interests in the assets referred to in this material.  Investors should consider this material as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Like this article? Share
Latest Insights

1 Jul, 24

Zerocap Partners with Fireblocks: One of their First Institutional Crypto Custody Providers

Zerocap is One of the First Institutional Crypto Custody Providers to Join the Fireblocks Global Custodian Partner Program. Read more in recent articles in Coindesk,

Weekly Crypto Market Wrap, 15th July 2024

Download the PDF Zerocap is a market-leading digital asset firm, providing trading, liquidity and custody to forward-thinking institutions and investors globally. To learn more, contact

Weekly Crypto Market Wrap, 8th July 2024

Download the PDF Zerocap provides digital asset liquidity and digital asset custodial services to forward-thinking investors and institutions globally. For frictionless access to digital assets

Receive Our Insights

Subscribe to receive our publications in newsletter format — the best way to stay informed about crypto asset market trends and topics.

Want to see how bitcoin and other digital assets fit into your portfolio?

Contact Us
Ready to sign up?
Create an Account