Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 17th March 2025

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This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

• BlackRock’s BUIDL surpasses $1B, now the largest tokenized Treasury fund.
• REX Shares launches BMAX, the first Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF, giving exposure to convertible bonds from firms holding BTC.
• VanEck registers Avalanche ETF in Delaware as AVAX drops 55% year-to-date.
• Circle to move a $900M money market fund under DABA license.
• Paradigm leads $82 million Series-B round for crypto payments network Mesh.
• Cantor Fitzgerald partners with Anchorage Digital and Copper for Bitcoin custody services.
• MoonPay acquires Iron, an API-focused stablecoin infrastructure developer.
• $TON jumps 20% as France allows Telegram’s Pavel Durov to return to Dubai post-arrest.
• Crypto․com secures Dubai license for crypto futures & perpetuals for institutions.

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Technicals & Macro

BTCUSD

Source: TradingView

Key levels
66,000 / 72,000 / 92,000 / ~110,000 (just north of the all-time high)

A market in transition amid regulatory, political, and macroeconomic pressures.

The broader crypto market hit the skids over the past fortnight, with Bitcoin falling below the 80,000 level, reaching lows of 76,600, and now finding a little resistance on the rebound to 85,000. Solana and  Dogecoin both dropped close to 10% week on week, and the broader market decline has effectively wiped out all market gains since November 2024, demonstrating the severity of the current correction. compounded by growing recession fears and shifting US policies regarding cryptocurrency regulation and adoption. 

Trump’s tariffs are still the spark that lit the fire. A Bank of America survey ranked a potential global trade war as the most bearish intermarket scenario for 2025, surpassing even fears about AI competition from China. Volatile sentiment is hitting everything from cryptocurrencies to global financial markets, creating a cascading effect that has amplified market instability and contributed to a general risk-off sentiment across asset classes. Despite this, we had a great bounce in stocks on Friday with the S&P 500 rallying over 2%. 

We mentioned it last week, but we are going to be volatile in this new market regime, and short-medium term traders need to be well aware of leverage and position sizing. I have a feeling that the longer-term traders will ultimately be the winners – there are plenty of opportunities for entries in assets with strong fundamentals at value levels.

It’s not all doom and gloom though. Institutional adoption is still moving at lightspeed (or at least as fast as the behemoths can move), and US regs are opening up. The Singapore Exchange announced plans to list Bitcoin perpetual futures in the second half of 2025, targeting institutional clients and professional investors. BlackRock integrated its Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) into its model portfolios with an allocation of 1-2%, sending a strong signal to other institutions The U.S. House voted to overturn the IRS DeFi Broker Rule, indicating a more favorable regulatory environment for decentralised finance. Reports emerged that the SEC is considering classifying XRP as a commodity, which would represent a significant shift in the regulator’s stance. 

One piece of news that has not really been picked up, is that MGX, an Abu Dhabi-based AI and technology investor, invested $2 billion in Binance – the single largest investment in a crypto firm, ever. This is fairly monumental, and representative of Binance’s growth aspirations from this point.

All of this said, we haven’t seen the BTCUSD gap close to 73,500, which would complete the fractal gap. Downside would likely be targeting this technical level. If the market catches some tailwind alongside Friday’s equities rally, a run back towards 90,000 would close take us back into bullish territory.

Dollar index back in the range

DXY taking a breather, but looking for more downside on recession fears in the US.

Gold lighting up again

Gold simply has a lot going for it. Buoyant on safe-haven flows, benefactor of USD weakness, a hedge against money expansion. We’ve come a long way here, and general market rhythms would indicate some kind of a reversion back to the ascending trendline at some point. 

ETHUSD

ETH experienced a dramatic plunge from 2,150 to 1,750 between March 10th and 11th, representing one of its steepest declines in recent months. This sharp drop occurred after Ethereum briefly traded in the 2,100 range with a 13.91% decline already noted at the beginning of the week. By March 11, Ethereum was trading around the 1,900 level, with technical indicators showing extreme bearish sentiment, despite some attempts at basing. 

ETHBTC

ETHBTC – continues  freefall.

The basis curve has declined this week with the wipe out in some leverage across the space. ETF flows could be the leading indicator on whether the basis expands – keep an eye on inflows.

Safe trading out there!

Jon de Wet, CIO

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Spot Desk

A remarkably steady stretch for the Australian Dollar (AUD) this time around, as it posted its second-lowest volatility week of the year. Opening at 0.63029 and closing at 0.63225, the AUD was relatively stagnant as it flirted with year-to-date highs and consolidated its significant gains from the previous week driven by USD weakness following softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data. This macroeconomic picture was reinforced this week as the annual U.S. inflation rate came in at 2.8% in February, down from 3% in January and below the expected 2.9%—fueling further speculation on the Federal Reserve’s next move at FOMC this week.

US equities saw six-month lows and broader risk encountered a mixed week as traders continue to attempt to digest shifting tariff and geopolitical risks and grapple with the unpredictable economic landscape. This coming week, all eyes now turn to key interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan this week as policymakers look to balance inflation concerns against slowing economic growth.

Bitcoin (BTC) endured a relatively muted trading week, remaining pinned around range lows after the prior week’s heavy sell-off. Opening at 80,734.78, BTC briefly dipped to 76,606.00 to start the week and shake up sentiment – with the Fear & Greed Index plummeting to 20 and marking “extreme fear” at levels not seen for over 12 months – before staging a modest rebound to close at 82,574.53. This comes as futures open interest in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) saw sharp declines, suggesting a washout of leverage and the unwinding of speculative positions. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have also erased their year-to-date gains, with cumulative inflows dropping to their lowest level since January 2nd, underscoring the cautious sentiment among investors.

This market hesitancy was reflected in flows on the desk, with the share of activity being notably dominated by on-ramping and off-ramping between stablecoins and fiat currencies (USDT/C, AUD, USD, EUR) that we continue to observe consistent and balanced flows in; contrasted with subdued crypto flows in both majors and altcoins, mirroring broader market trends. 

Despite the caution and fear, TradFi did not hesitate with another flurry of altcoin ETF filings from some of the biggest names in finance highlighting the unflinching institutional push into the altcoin space. Franklin Templeton (over $1.5T in assets under management) filed an S-1 with the SEC to launch the Franklin XRP Trust, swiftly following it up with a 19b-4 filing for a Franklin Solana ETF the next day; while VanEck slid out the risk curve with the first-ever Avalanche (AVAX) ETF. As the gap between bullish institutional and fearful retail sentiment continues to widen, these moves reinforce a longer-term structural shift: while short-term traders remain cautious, institutional players are methodically positioning for deeper crypto market integration across several names such as SOL, XRP, AVAX, DOGE, LTC & HBAR.

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across major coins, altcoins, and memecoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement. 

Ben Mensah, Trading Analyst

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Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*

Basis rates on BTC and ETH remained relatively flat throughout the week but are rising as we speak.

For investors looking to ‘buy the dip’ – accumulation structured product strategies are worth considering: 

SOL Accumulate
Suitable for SOL Investors, Funds, and Long-Term Holders, a SOL accumulator is a structured product designed for investors looking to systematically buy SOL over time, often at potentially better prices than a simple dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) strategy.

Key Terms

• Underlying Asset: Solana (SOL)
• Initial Fixing Price: 130 USD
• Tenor: 13 weeks
• Strike Price: 84% of the initial fixing price = 109.2 USD
• Knock-Out (KO) Level: “6% of the initial fixing price = 150.8 USD

Leverage & Purchase Price

• If SOL fixing price is above the strike (109.2 USD), the investor buys 1× notional SOL at 109.2 USD.
• If SOL fixing price is below the strike (109.2 USD), the investor buys 2× notional SOL at 109.2 USD.

Observation & Settlement

• Observation Frequency: Daily barrier observation
• Settlement Frequency: Weekly
• Knock-Out Event: If at any observation, SOL’s fixing price reaches or rises above 150.8 USD, the product terminates early.

Key reasons why an investor might look into this strategy:

1. Accumulating a Large SOL Position Over Time
2. Potentially Better Pricing vs. Spot Purchases
3. Built-in Exit if SOL Surges (Knock-Out Protection)
4. Weekly Cash Flow Optimization
5. Potential for a Favorable Exit if SOL Surges (Knock-Out Protection)
   1. If SOL rises above 150.8 USD, the accumulator terminates early, and no further purchases occur.
   2. This acts as a built-in exit strategy, preventing the investor from continuing to buy into an aggressive rally where they might prefer to wait for a pullback instead.

What to Watch

US Retail Sales (Feb) – Monday, 17 Mar: Retail sales are forecast to rise +0.7% M/M (prev. -0.9%), with ex-autos up +0.5% (prev. -0.4%). Bank of America sees a +0.3% seasonally adjusted increase, boosted by higher-income spending and wealth effects, though rising food prices may weigh on lower-income consumers.

NVIDIA CEO Speech at GTC – Tuesday, 18 Mar: Jensen Huang speaks at 17:00 GMT/13:00 EDT, with focus on the Blackwell B300 series (due H2 2025) and Rubin GPU (2026). Investors await updates on chip performance and potential AI/tariff impacts.

FOMC Announcement – Wednesday, 19 Mar: Rates expected to remain at 4.25-4.50%, with little chance of a cut. Markets anticipate 70bps of cuts by year-end, starting June. Attention on Powell’s comments and projections amid tariff concerns and a Q1 GDPnow estimate of -2.4% (or -0.4% gold-adjusted).

Australian Jobs (Feb) – Thursday, 20 Mar: Employment expected to increase by +30k (prev. +44k), with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Participation rate may ease to 67.2% (prev. 67.3%). Westpac highlights strong non-market sector growth and modest market sector gains.

* Index used:

Bitcoin	Ethereum	Gold	Equities	High Yield Corporate Bonds	Commodities	Treasury Yields
BTC	ETH	PAXG	S&P 500, ASX 200, VT	HYG	SPGSCI	U.S. 10Y

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