28 Apr, 25

Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 28th April 2025

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This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

  • Tether-backed Twenty One plans to rival MicroStrategy with Bitcoin-focused strategies, listing risks and validating its approach.
  • Ethereum’s development focus shifts to user experience and layer-1 scaling, with Vitalik Buterin proposing replacing EVM with RISC-V to improve Ethereum’s scalability.
  • Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD has launched on Aave V3 Ethereum, expanding its presence in DeFi markets.
  • PayPal plans to offer 3.7% yield on US stablecoin PYUSD to promote broader adoption.
  • CME Group to launch XRP futures as XRP interest and adoption grow, marking its fourth crypto product.
  • Theo raises $20M with backing from major hedge funds and Wall Street firms to bring institutional trading tools to crypto.
  • Brazil’s B3 launches the world’s first spot XRP ETF, XRPH11, managed by Hashdex and Genial Investimentos.
  • Arizona prepares to become the first state to buy Bitcoin as 36 states advance crypto legislation, while El Salvador adds Bitcoin amid IMF compliance concerns.

Technicals & Macro

BTCUSD

Source: TradingView

Key levels
66,000 / 72,000 / 92,000 / ~110,000 (just north of the all-time high)

Bitcoin continues its strong resurgence, trading at ~95,000 to start the new week. Resilience in the face of volatile bond markets, geopolitical uncertainty, and persistent inflation pressures highlights its evolving role in the broader asset mix — no longer just a risk asset proxy, but increasingly viewed as a core allocation for institutional treasuries. 

The week has reinforced this theme with MicroStrategy adding yet another 6,556 BTC to its balance sheet, spending $555.8M and bringing its total holdings to 538,200 BTC, and other players following suit. In fact, we’ve seen a 3.15% rise  in AUM from  crypto treasuries across governments, public and private companies, funds and crypto treasuries over the past 30-days. This is substantial – and we are seeing similar flows on our OTC desk.

The liquidity backdrop remains constructive despite headline risks, and this is growing beyond Bitcoin. Successful projects such as BlackRock’s tokenised Treasury fund underscoring institutional capital’s continued pivot toward blockchain-based solutions. 

Technically, Bitcoin is navigating critical levels – Immediate support sits at 92,000, while there is some chop to get through above 95,000 to open the pathway toward 100,000 and beyond.

Bitcoin’s relative strength amongst the chaos is very telling – we keep pointing toward real money buyers at these levels. Leverage is not wild, in fact Binance’s funding rate on BTC has just gone negative as I speak, with spot rallying. The 3-month basis is sitting at around 5% annualised. We are in open territory here, with little risk of large liquidations to the downside. As always, the US uncertainty looms, but this is a market where investors, not traders are ruling the roost, and Bitcoin is breaking away from its often stereotyped correlations.

NASDAQ/BTC

This chart tells it all – VIX dropping off (bottom indicator), BTC holding steady against the Nasdaq. Bet a case of beer we break the lows this week (not financial advice!).

Fed expectations looking like a slam dunk hold on May 07

Fed funds futures looking to play it safe, a hold at the next meeting on the back of inflation worries.

Dollar index still in the basement


DXY looking to retest the descending trendline and short-term resistance at 0.9980.

Gold retesting.. until a new high?

Gold is (still) absolutely unstoppable right now, and Jim Rickards is (still) ecstatic. Taking a short breather before a potential leg up again. Uncertainty = bid for scarcity in the current context.

China’s M1 supply breaching highs again

And China’s M1 supply is (still) on the move with liquidity metrics grinding higher. 

ETHUSD

ETHBTC

ETHUSD – moving higher on a weaker USD and marginally improved risk sentiment, but still in the basement on a relative BTC basis.
So here we are again – in the midst of Trump potentially backing off on hardline tariffs, but still generating a huge amount of uncertainty in markets, politics and life, BTC is holding strong. I wonder if in 10-years if we revisit the performance across all of the assets, altcoins and fun – if we all wished we’d just held BTC?

Stay safe out there.

Jon de Wet, CIO


Spot Desk

It was a short week in Australia with both Easter Monday and ANZAC Day holidays, leading to a quieter trading environment overall. The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) remained largely range-bound, consolidating between 0.6300 and 0.6400 with little to no notable price action. A weak USD, and marginally improved risk sentiment kept it in a tidy range.

In contrast, the crypto markets experienced significant movement, with Bitcoin (BTC) ending the week strong, reaching a high of $95,718.6, up from a low of $74,524.2 earlier in the month, an impressive 28.44% increase. Ethereum (ETH) also saw a notable gain, climbing to $1,854.66, up from a low of $1,587.87 earlier this month. Solana (SOL) followed suit, closing the week at $156.49, up from a low of $95.53 earlier in the month.

In a major development, SOL Strategies secured a landmark USD $500 million convertible note facility with ATW Partners, aimed at expanding their Solana holdings. This move reflects growing institutional interest in the Solana ecosystem, which could fuel further demand for the token in the coming months.

Memecoins saw an especially strong surge during the week, with $TRUMP soaring more than 70% within a day following political headlines. Other memecoins such as $DOGE, $BONK, $WIF, and $BRETT also gained significant traction.

On the desk, on-ramping demand was again higher as clients capitalised on the volatility by offering AUD. Many took advantage of Bitcoin’s recovery, with noticeable selling observed as the asset’s price rose. Additionally, USDT/USD off-ramping saw an uptick as clients took advantage of USDT’s price, which traded at a high of 9 basis points above parity.

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across major coins, altcoins, and memecoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.


Reshad Nahimzada, Trading Analyst


Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*

The basis for both BTC and ETH continues to track within familiar ranges. For now, we expect the BTC basis to remain anchored between 4–6%, as markets await greater clarity on trade developments and the U.S. monetary policy response.

Trade Idea: Selling upside volatility
Ongoing uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, bond market dynamics, and the Fed’s next moves has kept volatility elevated. In options markets, skew has now moved in favor of calls, making call premiums relatively richer. Against this backdrop, strategies focused on selling upside volatility may continue to offer attractive risk-adjusted returns.

Yield Exit Note sample terms:

For a 27th June BTC Yield Exit Note with 100k Strike Price one can generate 5.2% absolute Yield

There are two possible outcomes at expiry

  • BTC expires above 100k: Receive 100k USD per BTC invested + 5.2% yield paid in USD
  • BTC expires below 199k: Receive back BTC margin + 5.2% yield paid in BTC

Get in front of the derivatives desk for info!

Berkeley Cox, Derivatives Trader

What to Watch

Monday 28th April

  • Canada Election: Liberals under Carney narrowly expected to win. Political uncertainty remains high.
  • US Treasury Financing Estimates: Important ahead of Wednesday’s refunding announcement; focus on issuance and yield implications.

Tuesday 29th April

  • NBH Rate Decision: Hungarian Central Bank announcement.
  • EZ/European Data: German GfK (May), Spanish CPI, Swedish GDP (Q1) — early reads on European consumer sentiment and growth.

Wednesday 30th April

  • China PMIs (Official + Caixin): Key to assess manufacturing health amid escalating US-China tensions.
  • Australian Q1 CPI: Expected moderate but contained inflation, keeping RBA on hold.
  • European Data: German retail sales, import prices, French CPI, EZ GDP (expected +0.2% Q/Q) — growth worries dominate.
  • US GDP & PCE (Q1 and March): Mixed expectations (range from -1.5% to +1.1% GDP); inflation seen easing but tariffs could distort future prints.

Thursday 1st May

  • BoJ Meeting & Outlook Report: No change expected, but markets look for downgraded growth forecasts and hints on future rate paths.
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI (April): Expected contraction, weighing on growth sentiment.
  • UK/US Final Manufacturing PMIs: Final confirmation of April activity trends.

Friday 2nd May

  • US Jobs Report (April): Hiring seen slowing (130k consensus), unemployment steady at 4.2%. Key for Fed policy expectations.
  • South Korea CPI: Watching global inflation spillovers.
  • EZ Flash CPI (April): Expected slight cooling to 2.0% Y/Y; ECB may lean dovish.

* Index used:

  Bitcoin    EthereumGoldEquities        High Yield Corporate Bonds      CommoditiesTreasury Yields
BTCETHPAXG        S&P 500, ASX 200, VT      HYG  SPGSCIU.S. 10Y

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