Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 19 January 2026

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This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

• Trump announces new tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland; EU prepares up to €93bn in retaliation
• White House – Coinbase clash puts CLARITY Act support at risk over stablecoin yield rules
• CME to add Cardano, Chainlink and Stellar futures to crypto derivatives lineup amid shift towards 24/7 trading
• South Korea passes framework enabling issuance of tokenised securities
• Goldman Sachs explores tokenisation and prediction markets as U.S. regulatory clarity improves

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Technicals & Macro

Markets

Markets remained resilient last week, navigating a series of macro and political crosscurrents with surprising calm. U.S. equities were mixed as small- and mid-caps extended year-to-date leadership. The Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 hit new all-time highs, while large-cap indexes gave back some ground. Value continued to outperform growth, and early earnings season delivered a split outcome across banks, while TSMC’s upside surprise helped support AI-linked sentiment.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Data as of Jan. 13, 2026)

The inflation backdrop remains supportive. Core CPI rose just 2.6% year-on-year in December, the slowest pace since March 2021, while producer prices ticked higher but remain well-contained. Retail sales beat expectations, and housing data surprised to the upside. Mortgage rates continued to fall, with the 30-year fixed rate approaching 6%, helping drive a rebound in existing and new home sales.

Source: x.com (@gilmoreport) – The Orange Swan

Though markets are not being driven by data alone. Much of the tension is coming from political noise. President Trump’s barrage of early-2026 headlines included military intervention in Venezuela, tariff threats toward Europe and Iran, and renewed efforts to replace Fed Chair Powell. A DOJ subpoena over Fed building renovations has sparked concern about central bank independence. Markets are watching closely for a potential leadership transition at the Fed, with Kevin Warsh now floated as a more conventional successor to Powell.

Source: Polymarket

A Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariff authority is also in focus. A ruling against the administration could create near-term volatility around trade policy, refund liabilities, and deficit expectations.

Source: AMP

Despite this, markets have held up. Equities and the USD remain higher year-to-date, and rates have yet to meaningfully reprice. The assumption remains that political theatrics will meet institutional resistance and that the White House ultimately wants stable asset prices heading into the midterms.

Crypto

Source: TradingView

Last week, Bitcoin broke above the $95,000 level that had capped price action since November, and traded closer $97,000. The move comes as digital assets begin to catch up to the broader rally in equities and precious metals. With gold pricing in fiat debasement and geopolitical risk for weeks, Bitcoin’s relative underperformance has started to reverse. Its cheaper valuation versus hard assets may now be triggering renewed rotation into the crypto space.

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing strong demand. On Tuesday, the group recorded $760 million in net inflows, the largest daily total since the October crypto drawdown. Fidelity’s FBTC alone accounted for $351 million. Ether is participating in the move as well, gaining 6% midweek and pushing year-to-date returns to over 13%. Ether ETFs also attracted $130 million in new capital during the session.

Source: Coinglass

While flows and price momentum are clearly turning, the market remains highly levered. A sharp move earlier today triggered a $869 million long liquidation cascade, with over $229 million from BTC and $154 million from ETH. This was one of the largest liquidation events since Q4 last year and was likely triggered by a rapid repricing across risk assets following several macro headlines.

Source: Bloomberg

Specifically, President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on eight European countries over Greenland, escalating to 25% by June if no deal is struck. The EU immediately began preparing EUR 93 billion in retaliatory tariffs, while Iran issued direct military warnings in response to U.S. rhetoric. The sudden geopolitical repricing appears to have tripped long-side leverage across crypto, leading to the sharp flush.

Despite the volatility, the market recovered relatively quickly with BTC finding its feet in this range, suggesting strong underlying bid and that much of this macro noise is priced. The setup resembles early-stage risk-on rotation, where structural flows (ETF demand, asset reallocation) are more durable than short-term positioning noise. With ETF flows returning and Bitcoin reclaiming macro narrative relevance, the outlook still remains constructive.

Stay safe! 

Emir Ibrahim, Analyst

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Spot Desk

Client flow dynamics this week remained consistent with behaviour transitions into year-end, characterised by an extreme concentration of volumes in majors. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) saw the highest activity with split directionality; BTC skewed toward the buy side, whereas ETH volumes were dominated by selling. Solana (SOL) was exclusively bid for the week in a display of recovering sentiment following October’s broad-based market liquidations, with participants potentially interpreting futures volumes well below pre-event levels to indicate a market cleared of excess leverage and a cleaner structural slate for upside. In stablecoin flows, we saw balanced activity in USDT/AUD, a significant uptick in USDT/USDC to USD off-ramping and steady demand for AUDD as a robust alternative to traditional banking rails.

Despite a tumultuous geopolitical backdrop, Bitcoin saw strong performance last week, climbing from $91,013 to highs of $97,924 – aided by strong U.S. spot ETF performance as US$1.4 billion of inflows marked the strongest weekly intake since October. However, this momentum stalled over the weekend session as BTC consolidated around 95,000 before a sharp risk-off move this morning saw BTC drop from $95,498 to $91,910 in just two hours, tracking a gap down in U.S. equity futures and a continuation of the parabolic surge in precious metals on market open. ETH followed, retracing much of its weekly gains in the morning’s downward move to close the week modestly green at $3,284 before continuing to slide into Monday’s Asia session alongside broader risk.

AUD/USD remained remarkably rangebound amidst the geopolitical volatility, opening at 0.6678 and trading between 0.6667 and 0.6729 to close just a pip higher at 0.6679 – in a relatively muted response to U.S. Core CPI YoY coming in softer than expectations at 2.6%. In global headlines, President Trump announced 10% tariffs on eight European nations over Greenland, sparking a €93 billion retaliatory threat from the EU and an emergency meeting for European leaders set for Thursday; meanwhile, last-minute lobbying from Gulf allies persuaded the U.S. to hold off on military strikes against Iran. Locally, markets look ahead to Thursday’s Australian unemployment print while the MoM Core PCE Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – headlines economic data prints out of the US for the week.

Beyond immediate price action, regulation and institutional adoption continue to drive the crypto headline cycle. CME Group will add Cardano, Chainlink, and Stellar to its derivatives lineup on February 9 as they ease towards 24/7 markets and an “always-on” model in 2026, while the CLARITY Act faces hurdles as Coinbase and the White House clash over stablecoin yield provisions. BitMine Immersion Technologies announced a $200 million investment into MrBeast’s Beast Industries, linking the largest ETH treasury with a 460 million-subscriber creator ecosystem. On the banking front, Goldman Sachs confirmed active exploration of tokenisation and stablecoin technology, while South Korea’s legislature passed amendments establishing a legal basis for tokenised securities.

As U.S. markets return from the MLK Day holiday, all eyes turn to Tuesday’s cash open to see if the current risk slide can find a floor.

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions and competitive pricing across majors, stablecoins, and altcoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.

Ben Mensah, Trading Analyst

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Derivatives Desk

Basis rates traded lower this week. The BTC 90-day basis rate is down 65 bps to 4.69%. ETH’s is down to 3.78%.

Source: Velodata

Trade Idea: Jun ’26 Bull-Call Spread ($120k/$150k)

• Strategy: $120k / $150k Bull-Call Spread

• Expiry: June 2026 Expiry

• Cost Basis: ~2.7% / $2,500 USD per unit

• Potential Payout: 12x Premium Spent

The strategy is predicated on three specific market factors currently observed in early 2026:

1. Volatility at a Discount: After a sluggish 2025, long-term ATM Implied Volatility (IV) has dwindled, making option prices cheaper than usual. 

Source: Velodata

2. Skew Advantage: Current risk reversals show a distinct bias toward puts (downside protection). This makes OTM upside exposure via calls cheap.

Source: Velodata

3. Low Basis Rates: With current basis rates compressed, the structural “cost of carry” is at a cyclical low. Since lower rates reduce the forward premium in option pricing models, upside calls are currently priced at a relative discount (chart shown above).

Hit the Derivs Desk up for refreshed Pricing!

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What to Watch

MON: CN GDP Growth Rate YoY, CA Inflation Rate YoY

TUE: GB Unemployment Rate YoY

WED: GB Inflation Rate YoY, US API Crude Oil Stock Change

THUR: AU Unemployment Rate, US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Oct and Nov), US GDP Growth Rate QoQ, JP Inflation Rate YoY, BOJ Interest Rate Decision

FRI: GB Retail Sales YoY

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