Weekly Crypto Market Wrap: 10th June 2025

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This is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

Week in Review

🔵 Circle’s IPO surges nearly 200%, ending up 167% above the IPO price, marking a pivotal moment for stablecoins.

🏢 Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin gains regulatory approval in 🇦🇪 Dubai for use in DIFC, UAE’s first crypto license.

💰 Robinhood completes $200M acquisition of Bitstamp, boosting its crypto exchange presence, 📈 shares rise.

🌏 South Korea elects pro-crypto leaders, signaling a friendly stance towards crypto ETFs and KRW stablecoins.⚠️ High-leverage trader James Wynn loses $25M in Bitcoin bets.

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Technicals & Macro

BTCUSD

Source: TradingView

74,000  / 92,000 / 100,000 / ~110,000 / 112,000 (ATH)

The Trump effect hits again (again).

This time it was the relationship volatility between Elon Musk and the President that spilled over to market volatility. A true break-up of sorts. Musk argued that the proposed tax package significantly increased the federal deficit, eliminating subsidies for electric vehicles and solar energy, while leaving oil and gas subsidies untouched. In their true style, it was a very public bust-up leading to some blasts from Truth Social and Twitter, dissected at length by the media. Risk assets came off hard, but the recovery has (once again) been backed by real-money buyers coming in to pick up offers around the 100,000 level. Combine this with some cautious easing of East-West trade tensions, strong M&A activity, and a market that is still not at excessive leverage, and you have the potential melting pot for another break of highs.

The key level to watch here is a retest of 106,000 before another shot at highs. It’s been a strong move, and equities are at highs again, but in my opinion there is enough uncertainty around to see a retest.

30Y Treasury Yield

The bullish sentiment sits against the backdrop of a stubbornly high 30-year treasury yield, as fiscal and stagflation risks persist. Which explains the USD weakness and gold’s break above its trendline.

DXY in the basement

Gold trading into a wedge

Fedwatch

All of which explains the implied probabilities on Fedwatch futures pricing – a clear hold at the next meeting against stagflationary risks.

NASDAQ/BTCUSD

Again the Nasdaq/BTCUSD ratio is holding below the long-term descending trendline and showing signs that BTC makes a break higher pulling the ratio down. Bitcoin and Gold have the bearer asset proposition, which is leading to capital inflows in the face of US uncertainty, which we don’t expect easing anytime soon.

Basis expansion retreating

What is really fascinating about this market right now, is that with such a move higher, we are still at record low basis and perpetual funding rates. In fact, over the past week perp rates spent time in negative territory – showing that a substantial part of the derivatives market was getting short. This is very telling against significant spot buying, and again, leaves room for strong breaks higher (pending any geopolitical or macro shocks!).

ETHUSD

ETHBTC

Ethereum is beginning to find its wings again. So.. where do we head from here? It’s a constructive market, albeit with some limited altcoin risk with key token unlocks coming up, including ENA, APT, IMX, and ARB, each with the potential to bring a little altcoin market volatility. On the majors though, given all the M&A and listing activity combined with strong real-money buyers, and decently contained leverage, we should see some buoyancy.

Stay safe out there.

Jon de Wet, CIO

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Spot Desk

The Spot OTC desk saw firm engagement last week despite elevated volatility and macro-driven dislocations. Bitcoin retraced to the $100k handle following $950 million in liquidations  (the largest since early April) coinciding with net outflows from crypto ETFs. Nonetheless, client flows remained resilient, indicating that institutional sentiment continues to consolidate on dips.

From a macro perspective, the stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls print (+139k vs +125k expected) temporarily reduced near-term rate cut probabilities. However, the upcoming CPI and PPI data will be pivotal in determining whether the Fed can pivot in the coming months. These macro prints are likely to dictate near-term positioning flows.

Notably, Circle’s IPO acted as a positive sentiment anchor. Closing 245% above its IPO reference price in secondary markets, the transaction demonstrated material institutional demand for stablecoin infrastructure.

Client activity was led by substantial USDT flows against both USD and AUD. This included multiple block trades with minimal market impact, reflecting deep two-way interest. BTC and ETH volumes remained active, particularly through AUD crosses, with BTC/AUD seeing concentrated execution following the price retracement. Cross-stablecoin flow (notably USDT/USDC) was observed in size, aligned with treasury management strategies post-Circle listing. Additionally, there was a pick-up in SOL and L3 flows versus USDC and ETH respectively, pointing to increased appetite for ecosystem rotation trades.

AUD remained a key funding and execution currency across spot pairs. Flows in USDT/AUD and USDC/AUD were among the most active on the week, consistent with ongoing institutional allocation from regional clients.

With key macro catalysts ahead and the ETF narrative regaining momentum, we anticipate continued interest in USD stablecoin rails, strategic entry in majors, and further rotation into high-beta alts as directional conviction builds.

The OTC desk continues to offer tailored cryptocurrency liquidity solutions, offering competitive pricing across major coins, altcoins, and memecoins, paired with key fiat currencies. With T+0 settlement, we ensure seamless trading and settlement.

Emir Ibrahim, Analyst

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Derivatives Desk

WHOLESALE INVESTORS ONLY*

BTC and ETH basis rates continue to grind lower, even as spot prices approach breakout levels. We expect this downward pressure to persist in the near term absent a meaningful external catalyst. The widespread availability of spot ETFs has made basis trades highly accessible, allowing hedge funds to quickly arbitrage away any upward moves. Combine this with the retail market not taking up momentum leveraged moves, and you get compression. In addition, healthy BTC structured lending markets may also be contributing to the compression here. 

BTC 90-day Basis is sitting at 6.36% and ETH’s is at 5.40%.

Trade Idea: ETH Discount Note

With risk appetite picking up across the crypto market, an altcoin rally may be on the horizon, noting some key token unlocks to be aware of. In such a scenario, we see ETH as particularly well-positioned to outperform, given its comparatively oversold condition relative to other major digital assets. Additional bullish catalysts include progress on stablecoin legislation and increased institutional adoption—exemplified by initiatives like Sharplink Gaming. A strategic way to gain exposure is a Discount Note, which allows investors to participate in potential upside while entering below spot.

OVERVIEW

Term: 6-Months

The structure has a binary payout outcome depending on the price of ETH observed at expiry. Payout for this options strategy depends on the price of ETH at expiry with reference to the Strike Level – the two scenarios are:

Expiry Price above Strike Price (25% above current price):

• Maximum return of 36% – received in USD.

Expiry Price below Strike Price: 

• 8% discounted purchase price at current levels into the ETH token – received in Spot.

RISK PROFILE

• Maximum loss for this product is the initial investment amount.
• May suit investors with a stable to moderately bullish view on ETH.
• May not suit investors who think a major bull run in ETH is likely before expiry.
• May not suit investors who think ETH will fall significantly before expiry.

Hit the desk up for pricing.

Berkeley Cox, Derivatives Analyst

What to Watch

The week ahead presents a dense slate of high-impact macro releases with broad implications for monetary policy across major regions. The key focal point will be the US CPI print on Wednesday, which markets will closely scrutinise for signs of tariff-induced inflation spillovers. 

Wednesday, June 11, US CPI (May)

Headline seen steady at +0.2% M/M; core likely ticks up to +0.3%. This is the critical event of the week. Focus will be on early signs of tariff pass-through following April’s implementation. A core surprise to the upside would reinforce caution among Fed doves. Note: price pressure in ISM surveys remains elevated, and Beige Book comments show a growing share of businesses plan to pass on higher costs.

Thursday, June 12, UK GDP (Apr), US PPI (May)

UK GDP: Consensus points to a -0.1% M/M contraction, after 0.2% in March. April’s data will reflect post-tariff economic uncertainty and possible pullback in manufacturing. Given recent hawkish BoE rhetoric, we expect markets to look through small monthly swings unless significantly negative.

US PPI: Could provide clues on upstream pricing pressure ahead of CPI releases. Markets watching for alignment with CPI, especially if tariff effects show up here first.

Friday, June 13, University of Michigan Sentiment (Jun, prelim)

Expected to soften slightly. Watch inflation expectations component, especially in the context of tariff discourse and Fed communication.

Emir Ibrahim, Analyst 

* Index used:

Bitcoin	Ethereum	Gold	Equities	High Yield Corporate Bonds	Commodities	Treasury Yields
BTC	ETH	PAXG	S&P 500, ASX 200, VT	HYG	SPGSCI	U.S. 10Y

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